*

Trump tariffs have created gaps in international trade

that

could benefit some countries

*

Egypt, Morocco and Singapore might see additional

investment as

manufacturers diversify

*

India exploring potential opportunities including in

textiles

and footwear

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Latin American dynamics shift, with Mexico largely

shielded by

the USMCA trade accord

By Mohamed Ezz, Ahmed Eljechtimi and Xinghui Kok

April 8 (Reuters) - Days after U.S. President Donald

Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs shocked multiple U.S.

trading partners and global markets, a handful of countries are

emerging as potential winners although the risk of a

tariff-induced recession will limit the upside.

With longtime allies and close U.S. trading partners

including the European Union, Japan and South Korea among those

hardest hit - with tariffs of 20% or more - rivals from Brazil

to India and Turkey to Kenya see a silver lining.

Brazil is among the economies that escaped with the lowest

"reciprocal" U.S. tariff of 10%. In addition, the agricultural

giant could benefit from China's retaliatory tariffs likely to

hit U.S. farm exporters.

The latest U.S. tariffs are due to come into effect on April

9.

Brazil, as a net importer of goods from the United States,

exemplifies the way some countries could take advantage of the

trade war that Trump is waging primarily against China and other

major exporters that run trade surpluses with the U.S.

Morocco, Egypt, Turkey and Singapore, all of which have

trade deficits with the U.S., could find an opportunity in the

distress of those, like Bangladesh and Vietnam, which both run

big surpluses and have been hit hard by Trump.

While the latter two are grappling with expected tariffs of

37% and 46%, respectively, the former, like Brazil and most of

its neighbours, will squeak by with 10% each - more of a slap on

the wrist in the new Trump world order.

"The US didn't impose tariffs on Egypt alone," said Magdy

Tolba, chairman of Egyptian-Turkish joint venture T&C Garments.

"It imposed much higher tariffs on other countries. This gives

Egypt a very good opportunity to grow."

Tolba listed China, Bangladesh and Vietnam as key

competitors to Egypt in textiles.

"The opportunity is in plain sight," he said. "We just need

to grab it."

Turkey, whose iron, steel and aluminium exports took a hit

from earlier U.S. tariffs, now stands to benefit as other global

traders endure even higher levies.

Trade Minister Omer Bolat has called the tariffs on Turkey

the "best of the worst" given the rates imposed on many other

countries.

NEGATIVE NOTICE

Similarly, Morocco, which has a free trade agreement with

the U.S., could emerge as a relative beneficiary of the pain of

both the EU and erstwhile Asian powerhouses.

"The tariff is an opportunity for Morocco to attract

investments by foreign investors willing to export to the U.S.,

given the comparatively low 10% tariff," said one former

government official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Still, the official and others noted that hazards loom, with

the danger that big recent Chinese investments, including $6.5

billion from Gotion High Tech for what would be

Africa's first gigafactory, could attract negative attention

from Trump.

Rachid Aourraz, an economist with the Moroccan Institute for

Policy Analysis (MIPA), an independent think tank in Rabat,

noted that the country's aerospace and fertiliser industries

could still take a hit.

"While the direct impact seems limited given that the U.S.

is not a major market for Morocco's exports, the shockwaves

created by the tariffs and the spectre of recession could impact

Moroccan economic growth," he said.

Kenya, with which the U.S. enjoys a trade surplus, may also

see a mixed blessing from a relatively glancing tariff blow.

Textile producers in particular expressed hope they could gain a

comparative advantage against competitors in countries harder

hit by tariffs.

GREATER MISERY

Similar concerns are playing out in Singapore, where the

benchmark Straits Times Index on Monday slumped 7.5% in its

largest fall since 2008 and extended its decline on Tuesday.

While the city-state might benefit from some investment

flows as manufacturers seek to diversify, they would still be

subject to substantial manufacturing and local content rules,

said OCBC economist Selena Ling.

"The absolute story is there are no "winners" if the US

and/or global economy hits a hard stop or recession," she said.

"It's all relative."

Maybank economist Chua Hak Bin added: "Singapore cannot win

in global trade war, given the heavy reliance on trade."

India, despite a tariff of 26%, is still looking for

opportunity in its Asian rivals' greater misery.

According to an internal government assessment shared with

Reuters, the sectors where India can gain market share in

shipments to the U.S. include textiles, apparel and footwear.

Soon after the tariff announcement, the Indian trade ministry

said it was "studying the opportunities that may arise due to

this new development in the US trade policy."

India is also hoping to get a bigger share of Apple's ( AAPL )

iPhone manufacturing from China because of the tariff

differential, though the 26% tariff could still make the phone

substantially more expensive in the U.S.

In South America, where exports remain focused on

commodities from copper to grains, there are hopes the U.S.

tariff turmoil could revive talks on a long-delayed trade deal

between the four-member Mercosur bloc and the European Union.

Brazil could be the top beneficiary of any such move, but

even beyond that, trends during Trump's first term, when

Brazilian soybeans and corn growers enjoyed bumper sales as

China froze out U.S. farmers, could now be replicated.

Elsewhere in Latin America, Mexico, which has previously

been on the receiving end of Trump's wrath, has also emerged

relatively unscathed, with most of its commerce shielded by the

USMCA trade accord negotiated during Trump's first term, noted

Graham Stock, a senior emerging market strategist at RBC

BlueBay.

"But Mexican assets are struggling more than others because

Mexico is so exposed to the US economy, and at the end of the

day the Trump trade policy is a huge act of self-harm to the

U.S. economy," he added.

(Writing By Christian Plumb; Additional reporting by Aftab

Ahmed, Shivangi Acharya, Jonathan Spicer, Duncan Miriri and

Marcela Ayres; Editing by Kate Mayberry)