SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Retail prices for roasted and ground coffee in Brazil, which have fallen an average of 12% so far in August, could reverse course as costs of raw beans surge for Brazilian roasters, the country's coffee industry association said on Monday.

Raw coffee prices have rebounded over the past three weeks, recovering from July lows amid gains on the ICE exchange in New York, driven by factors including U.S. tariffs and frost in Brazil, Celirio Inacio, executive director of the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association, said in an interview.

ICE arabica futures have so far jumped around 35% in August, with the contract trading near $3.80 per pound on Monday.

The spike in coffee prices in New York has rippled into Brazil's domestic market, with ABIC data showing raw coffee prices rising by almost 25% to 2,191 reais per 60-kilogram bag from July to August.

"There hasn't yet been a significant pass-through to consumers, but if the market continues rising - or even holds at current levels - it's inevitable that shelf prices will move higher," Inacio said.

Brazil is the world's top producer and exporter of coffee, as well as the commodity's second-biggest consumer after the United States.

Traditionally roasted and ground coffee was selling for an average of 58.99 reais (around $10) per kilogram in Brazilian shops in August, down about 12% from May, when prices hovered near 70 reais per kilogram before the 2025 harvest gained momentum and helped ease prices.

However, a 50% tariff imposed on Brazilian goods, including coffee, by the government of U.S. President Donald Trump has sparked concern in the United States about coffee supplies.

Marcio Ferreira, president of Brazil's coffee exporters council Cecafe, told Reuters on Friday the tariff is the main driver behind the surge in futures contracts in New York.