RIO DE JANEIRO, July 10 (Reuters) - Brazil has
logistical and commercial flexibility to preserve the
competitiveness of its oil on the international market if the
50% tariff announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday
comes into effect on August 1, experts told Reuters.
Oil is the main product on Brazil's export list to the U.S.
and until now was exempt from the 10% tariff applied this year
to Brazilian exports, but it is unclear whether that will remain
the case with the new 50% tariffs.
"These tariffs may generate short-term noise in trade flows
and impact margins on spot contracts, but do not represent a
structural risk," said BTG Pactual analysts Luiz Carvalho and
Gustavo Cunha, in a report to clients.
The Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP), that represents
state-run oil firm Petrobras and oil majors operating
in Brazil, such as Shell, TotalEnergies and
Equinor ( EQNR ), said in a statement on Thursday that it views
Trump's measure "with concern", and urged Brazil's government to
act diplomatically.
IBP had no information on whether the previously valid
tariff exemption for oil would remain so after the announcement.
In 2024, Brazil exported a total of 1.78 million barrels per
day (bpd), of which 243,000 bpd were destined for the U.S.,
according to government data compiled by consultancy StoneX.
Petrobras, Brazil's main producer, will not be significantly
impacted by the tariffs, BTG analysts said. In the first quarter
of the year, only 4% of its exports went to the U.S., according
to company data.
In terms of oil products, Petrobras' share of exports to the
U.S. was 37% of a total of 209,000 bpd, or around 77,000 bpd.
"Although the U.S. has a considerable share of derivatives
exports, when we look in absolute terms, we believe that this is
a small volume and that Petrobras should be able to redirect
this export flow to another country with ease," said the BTG
analysts.
In a statement, Petrobras said that it is assessing the
impact of the tariff announced the day before and maintains its
strategy of always seeking "the best alternative for the company
in any scenario".
On Thursday, Petrobras' preferred shares were trading close
to flat.