Greater convenience, rising digitization, internet penetration and urbanization are among the key factors that led to a boom in the foodtech industry in India. Motilal Oswal expects this industry to clock a rapid 19 percent CAGR over FY23-25, fuelled by growth in the number of transacting users and order frequency. In this duopolistic food delivery market, Zomato with 55 percent share is a prominent player.

To foray into the quick commerce segment, Zomato acquired Blinkit (erstwhile: Grofers) in August 2022. In a highly competitive market, Blinkit grew its order volumes as well as average order value over a period of time. Its Gross Order Value (GOV) grew by about 26 percent sequentially in Q2FY23 to Rs 1,482 crore and in the following quarter of Q3FY23, Blinkit reported nearly 30 percent jump in revenue and managed to narrow down the EBITDA losses to Rs 230 crore from Rs 260 crore. Furthermore, as its potential user base is larger than the food delivery business and the retention rates being higher, it provides a cushion to Zomato’s overall growth.

However, the risk to this quick commerce business is its incremental cash burn, which can act as a roadblock for growth of Zomato. Alongside, Blinkit’s biggest challenge is rationalizing the delivery fleet due to time constrains in quick commerce. Competitor Big Basket in an interaction with CNBC-TV18 said the unit economics for 10-minute delivery is unviable. A ‘good sensible’ business is 15-30 minute deliveries. “For the unit economics of quick commerce to work, you need a high density of orders” Bigbasket's co-founder Hari Menon said. Hence, the key to make quick commerce work is to prioritize dense locations and order value, instead of covering an entire city.

Nevertheless, Blinkit could well become an overriding business for Zomato if it successfully maintains consistent growth in GOV and profitability in the long term. Furthermore, the integration of Zomato and Blinkit delivery fleet has the potential to result in better delivery management.

Will Zomato be able to sustain in a highly competitive foodtech industry?

Limited distinction between Zomato and Swiggy’s offerings – both having food delivery, dine-in and quick commerce are a concern for Zomato’s overall growth. A split market without a clear leader can hit margins due to absence of efficiency gains from order bunching. Hence, food delivery brands like TinyOwl, UberEats, foodpanda failed to create a mark in the longer term. However, Zomato and Swiggy survived due to a strong network, continuous operating leverage and increased pricing power.

Zomato’s food business recorded EBITDA breakeven in Q1FY23 and management expects it to be profitable latest by Q2FY24. Though Blinkit is scaling up well and improving on profitability, the industry is at a nascent stage today for Zomato, given the large number of players in the ecosystem.

Zomato's fourth quarter earnings for financial year 2022-23 are due in May 2023. Kotak Institutional Equities expects tepid 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter revenue growth to Rs 1,990 crore on account of lower food delivery orders, offset by contribution from the Blinkit business. ICICI Securities estimates food delivery GOV to remain flat sequentially given a seasonally weaker quarter and online consumption fatigue trends which means adjusted revenue growth of 9.5 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Also read: Citi gives a ‘buy’ call on Zomato, shares surge 8%