08:57 AM EDT, 04/09/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Liberal surge has stabilized, with models now giving Prime Minister Mark Carney a better than 85% chance of a majority if the parliamentary election were held today, with a strong Liberal minority the likely fallback position, said Rosenberg Research.

The collapsing NDP also means that the anti-growth Liberal-NDP alliance scenario that dominated the last parliament is unlikely this time around, noted Rosenberg Research.

Both parties have proposed tax cuts, but they aren't designed with a particularly stimulative structure, it added.

Friday's release of Canada's March jobs report (LFS) confirmed that the United States tariffs are shrinking the already-fragile economy, even though Canada has so far been granted an exemption for USMCA-compliant goods. Lumber tariffs will likely be added when the administration of President Donald Trump announces new sectoral tariffs.

One possible interpretation is that the Trump Administration is continuing the USMCA exemption to avoid further helping the Liberals ahead of the election, but for now, Canada has emerged better off than the European Union, pointed out Rosenberg.