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Canada's GDP Growth Outperformance Vs U.S. Is Gone, Says BMO
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Canada's GDP Growth Outperformance Vs U.S. Is Gone, Says BMO
Aug 1, 2025 4:16 AM

06:34 AM EDT, 08/01/2025 (MT Newswires) -- There were lots of moving parts in Canada's monthly gross domestic product report published on Thursday, and so a little bit for everyone, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

For the pessimists, there was confirmation that the Canadian economy pulled back for the second month in a row in May with a 0.1% month-over-month dip.

For the optimists, there was the fact that the economy is estimated to have started growing again in June at 0.1% month over month and the fact that output was roughly unchanged in Q2 -- a much less dire outcome than many expected at the start of the quarter.

For the realists, there is the fact that Canada's underlying growth rate has retreated to back below 1.5% year over year. That's after a brief, although glorious, spell when Canadian growth had managed to outpace the United States over a four-quarter period to Q1 2025, even poking up to 2.3% yyear over year at that time, stated the bank.

Given that 1.5% is the neighborhood that the Bank of Canada pegs potential growth, recent trends confirm that slack is opening up, according to BMO.

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