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Canada's Housing Starts Pull Back in December, Notes TD
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Canada's Housing Starts Pull Back in December, Notes TD
Jan 16, 2025 6:45 AM

09:28 AM EST, 01/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian housing starts came in at 231,500 annualized units in December, marking a 13% month-on-month decline from November's robust level, said TD.

The six-month moving average of starts dipped to 242,600 units, according to data released Thursday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

December's decline was concentrated in the multi-family sector, with urban starts down 15% month over month to 168,500 units. Meanwhile, urban single-detached starts declined by 10% to 45,500 units.

Urban starts were down in eight of 10 provinces:

-- Starts were down in Quebec (-12,700 to 40,600 units) but were offset by a modest 4,200 increase in Ontario to 63,700 units. They also pulled back, although modestly, across the Atlantic (-650 to 12,700 units), helped by a 1,100 increase in Prince Edward Island.

Starts dipped across the Prairies (-20,400 to 51,500 units) dragged down by Alberta (-16,200 to 43,300 units). Starts in British Columbia also fell modestly (-4,100 to 45,400 units).

Despite December's pullback, starts remained elevated on a trend basis, supported by purpose-built rental construction, which in turn has been lifted by robust population growth, pointed out the bank. Elevated home prices have also likely offered some support. Residential permit issue remains robust, pointing to further near-term gains.

Even with starts running at a lofty level nationwide, a divide has emerged between Ontario and other parts of the country, added TD. Starts are declining in the former -- though December saw a bit of a rebound -- as condo building is retrenching under the weight of weak demand.

Further declines in Ontario are likely on tap for this year, which, when combined with cooler population growth, points to a pullback in Canadian starts in 2025, stated the bank.

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