06:00 AM EST, 11/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian manufacturing sales are estimated to have retreated 1.1% month over month in October, reversing part of the 3.3% bounce in the prior month, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

If realized, that will leave sales barely above year-ago levels, and down in volume terms.

Given this year's deep trade uncertainty and the United States tariffs on key factory sectors, it's unsurprising that real manufacturing activity will decline about 3% this year, noted the bank.

The share of manufacturing output in Canada has dropped to just under 9% of real gross domestic product, noted BMO. That's down from a nearby peak of just over 16% in 2000, which had been fueled by the twin engines of record auto production and the internet boom.

What's especially notable in recent years is that factory output was drifting lower even before this year's U.S. trade trauma, which has just piled on the pain, stated the bank.

That wasn't obviously the case in the U.S. economy, where manufacturing output has been rising and still accounts for just over 10% of GDP, added BMO.