09:12 AM EDT, 07/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's payroll employment survey (SEPH) continued to paint a weaker picture of the labor market than the more timely Labour Force Survey (LFS), said CIBC.

15,000 jobs were created in May according to the SEPH survey, leaving employment only 0.2% above year-ago levels, relative to the latest 1.6% pace seen in the LFS -- excluding self-employment.

Modest employment gains in health care, retail trade, and construction offset drops in manufacturing, administration/support, and wholesale trade.

Job openings declined by 20,000, to the lowest level seen since 2017, leaving the number of unemployed persons per job opening also at the highest level since 2017 -- excluding the pandemic years, pointed out the bank. Labor demand was down across a range of sectors including construction, professional/scientific services, mining/oil and natural gas extraction, and management, which leaves job openings 16% below year-ago levels.

In line with the weakness, the volatile fixed-weight wage measure decelerated to 3.6% year over year from 4.6%.

Overall, Thursday's report continues to suggest that the LFS figures may be overstating labour market strength, and if the weakness in the SEPH data shows up in the LFS survey ahead, that would be a step towards the Bank of Canada lowering interest rates, according to CIBC.