07:17 AM EDT, 06/26/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Scotiabank noted the "stunning" by-election outcome in Canada for a parliamentary seat where a Toronto riding held by the Liberals for three decades was won by the Conservative candidate by a 42.1% to 40.5% margin.

Not even the Conservatives truly thought they'd win, according to the bank.

Toronto is typically a Liberal town and this particular riding is the heartland of the popularly termed 'limosine liberals', pointed out Scotiabank. The vote was widely viewed as a referendum on the current Liberal leadership and a litmus test of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's ability to lead the party into the next parliamentary election.

The outcome reinforces current polling and seat projections that predict a Conservative landslide if an election were to be held today, added Scotiabank. A parliamentary election has to be held by no later than October of next year so there is a lot of ground to cover between now and then.