09:11 AM EST, 01/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian retail receipts were unchanged in November, missing expectations for a 0.2% month-over-month advance, said Desjardins.

However, much like the prior few releases, most of the spending in November came from automotive sales, noted the bank. Excluding that category, sales fell 0.7% month over month, well below expectations for a one-tick advance.

In addition, only four of the nine subsectors saw sales rise, pointing to another month of narrow breadth, pointed out Desjardins. In volume terms, sales fell 0.4%, the first decline since July of last year.

That said, much of the weakness in November's figures released Thursday may have been driven by the GST holiday delaying purchases until December, stated the bank.

According to Statistics Canada's flash estimate, retail sales rose 1.6% month over month in December. Good prices were only up 0.3% over the month, suggesting that a large chunk of that strength came from a rebound in volumes, potentially tied to the GST holiday.

The weakness in November meant that per-capita spending fell over the month, but assuming the flash estimate proves true for December, that decline looks to have been fleeting, added Desjardins.

The Bank of Canada will likely look through any of this choppiness in retail receipts, according to Desjardins. It looks like consumers simply waited until the GST holiday in December to do their holiday shopping.

That's in line with the bank's expectations. As such, its quarterly gross domestic product tracking hasn't changed all that much, with Q4 hovering around the 2.5% mark. That's above the BoC's 2% estimate from the October Monetary Policy Report but it's unclear if this pace of growth is sustainable.