* Iran attacks disrupt Qatar's LNG output, impacting
global energy markets
* Cheniere and Venture Global ( VG ) shares surge amid supply
concerns
* Analysts warn of prolonged outages affecting LNG prices
and demand
By Curtis Williams and Scott DiSavino
HOUSTON, March 19 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. liquefied
natural gas producer Cheniere Energy jumped to an
all-time high while Venture Global ( VG ) initially spiked as
much as 13% on Thursday after QatarEnergy said attacks by Iran
may shut nearly a fifth of its LNG output for up to five years.
Cheniere hit a record high in intraday trade and its shares were
up about 7% to $285 in afternoon trading, while Venture Global ( VG )
reversed most of the gains earlier in the day. Venture Global ( VG )
shares are up about 50% over the past month.
The Thursday rally followed comments from QatarEnergy CEO Saad
al-Kaabi, who told Reuters that Iranian strikes had knocked out
17% of the Gulf nation's LNG export capacity.
Al-Kaabi said two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and one of its two
gas-to-liquids plants were damaged. Repairs will sideline 12.8
million metric tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he
said. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter, followed by the
U.S.
Cheniere can export more than 51 million metric tons of LNG per
year, while Venture Global ( VG ) can ship out more than 37 million
tons, according to the companies' recent earnings calls.
GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS DISRUPTED
The conflictthat broke out late last month has disrupted global
energy markets after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut
down, blocking around a fifth of global oil flows and forcing
QatarEnergy LNG to suspend shipments. Analysts had expected
short-term volatility but now warn repeated attacks on energy
infrastructure could trigger longer lasting shifts in LNG and
gas pricing.
Cheniere sells 94% of its output under long-term contract,
while Venture Global ( VG ) keeps about 30% for the spot market.
Since the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on February
28, U.S. gas prices have jumped about 12% compared to gains of
91% in Europe and 88% in Asia. Gas is trading at 37-month highs
near $21 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at the Dutch
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and near $20
at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
Before the latest strikes, consultancy Wood Mackenzie had
estimated Qatari LNG output could return to full capacity within
four to six weeks following a brief outage. That timeline will
now be extended depending on the severity of the damage, it said
in a note on Thursday.
"The damage to the two LNG trains at Ras Laffan will
inevitably mean that suppliers elsewhere around the world will
have more business for the coming few years. But the higher
European and Asian gas prices we have seen in recent weeks are
now likely to remain elevated for longer, which undoubtedly will
result in fuel-switching in both the power and industrial
sectors," said Wood Mackenzie Europe Gas & LNG director Tom
Marzec-Manser.
Ira Joseph, a fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global
Energy Policy, said that some of the lost Qatari supply could be
offset by new U.S. capacity expected to come online from Golden
Pass LNG owned by Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) and QatarEnergy in Texas,
in addition to three other plants under construction by Sempra ( SRE )
, NextDecade ( NEXT ) and Venture Global ( VG ).
Joseph said the key question moving forward is whether Qatar's
massive North Field expansion will also be affected.
"If it is impacted, then structurally we have to adjust our
LNG prices higher," he said. "But if we do that, we also have to
weaken our demand growth outlook."
Analysts at Jefferies warned that prolonged outages could lead
to sustained higher prices, although there will be some demand
destruction and coal-for-gas switching. Buyers, however, are
increasingly prioritizing supply diversity and geopolitical
resilience over the lowest-cost LNG, they added.