LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The outcome of the
first-round vote in Chile's presidential election should be
positive for the peso, stocks and bonds, analysts said on
Monday, expecting this could potentially pave the way for more
market-friendly initiatives.
Following the vote on Sunday, far-right candidate Jose
Antonio Kast is favoured to clinch victory in the runoff on
December 14 despite lagging slightly behind governing coalition
candidate Jeannette Jara.
The combined vote share of all right-leaning candidates
surpassing 50% made it likely Kast would consolidate votes in
the second round, positioning him for a decisive victory, said
Thierry Larose, portfolio manager at Vontobel.
"This outcome is seen as moderately bullish for Chilean
assets," Larose said in emailed comments. "A likely Kast
presidency, combined with a right-leaning but fragmented
Congress, is expected to support local assets such as Chilean
bonds and the peso."
Chile's peso has some catching up to do, having strengthened
just over 7% since the start of the year against a dollar that
has softened 9% against currencies of major U.S. trading
partners. Chile's peso has also underperformed regional peers
from Brazil to Colombia or Mexico, whose currencies have
strengthened 14% or more since the start of the year.
Law-and-order issues and immigration have dominated Chile's
electoral agenda, marking a sea change from the wave of
left-wing optimism and hopes of drafting a new constitution that
brought current President Gabriel Boric to power. Boric isn't
allowed to run for reelection.
The runoff pits two ideological extremes against each other.
An eventual win for Kast would put in place an administration
further to the right than any other since the Pinochet
dictatorship.
Diego Celedon at JPMorgan pointed to a stronger showing
overall for the right-wing lists.
"This lowers the execution risk of some of the pro-market
initiatives presented by the right-wing candidate (in case he
wins the second round), which in our view generates support for
equities," Celedon said.
MSCI's Chile equity benchmark has risen more than 46% since
the start of the year, beating a near-29% rally in the broader
MSCI emerging market equity index.
"For markets, a Kast victory offers the prospects of fiscal
consolidation and a renewed focus on attracting much-needed
investments and boosting Chile's lacklustre growth," said Nafez
Zouk, EM sovereign debt analyst at Aviva Investors.
"Markets should find comfort in the fact that the political
landscape should permit a move towards more centrist macro
policy-making, with the debate amongst the candidates having
been about how much, not whether, to consolidate fiscal
accounts."