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China 2025 refined copper output growth estimated at

7.5%-12%

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Increase will take China's share of global output to

nearly 60%

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Analysts revise up forecasts for China's copper demand

By Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson

BEIJING, Aug 1 (Reuters) - China's refined copper output

is set to hit a record high in 2025, analysts say, as its giant

smelting sector powers through a global shortage of copper ore

that is forcing some overseas competitors out of business.

Refined copper production in China, which already accounts

for more than half of the world's output of the metal, will

climb between 7.5% and 12% this year and surpass last year's

record high of 13.64 million metric tons, according to estimates

from five analysts.

Copper is vital for power, construction and manufacturing,

and growing output in the world's top producer and consumer is

sucking in scarce copper concentrate, the main ingredient for

smelters, increasing pressure on struggling competitors and

cementing China's dominance over the industry.

Available concentrate began tightening in late 2023 as

anaemic supply growth was worsened by mine closures and rapidly

expanding smelting capacity, particularly in China. That pushed

processing fees - what smelters are paid to turn concentrate

into metal - to record lows, slashing profitability and forcing

some smelters outside China to pause production.

Chinese smelters have managed to grow output faster than

concentrate imports by running down inventories and using scrap

from the government's consumer goods trade-in programmes, said

Alice Fox, commodities strategist at Macquarie Group.

"Chinese refined production has been impressively strong

year to date despite tight concentrates and low treatment

charges," Fox said.

China's refined copper output grew 9.5% in the first half of

the year, with many of its state-of-the-art smelting plants

partly offsetting losses with growing revenue from byproducts,

particularly sulphuric acid and rare elements.

China's copper concentrate imports, meanwhile, grew 6.4% in

the first half of the year, well ahead of the 0.3% to 0.87%

increase in global ore supply analysts had forecast for 2025.

That left smelters in other regions with insufficient copper

ore to process. China's Sinomine Resource Group said

last month it had temporarily paused operations at its Tsumeb

plant in Namibia because of a concentrate shortage.

Glencore ( GLCNF ) put its Philippine copper smelter into

maintenance in February, citing challenging market conditions.

Analysts expect global refined copper output to grow between

0.9% and 2% this year. With China's output rising faster, its

share of global refined copper production will rise to 57% this

year, according to consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

(BMI).

BETTER DEMAND

The growth in China's output is being driven by

stronger-than-expected exports plus growing investment in the

power grid sector, both of which are leading analysts to revise

up their copper demand forecasts.

BMI increased its forecast for China's copper demand growth

this year to 3.8%, versus a forecast of 2.9% at the beginning of

the year. Macquarie increased its forecast to 4.2% from 2.4%.

The big output jump is also expected to pull down China's

refined copper imports, which in 2024 stood at 3.74 million tons

or about 20% of national demand. BMI forecasts the imports will

fall by 8% in 2025.

Refined copper imports have already dropped 8.6% in the

first half of the year, partly as traders sent more cargoes to

the United States to beat the copper tariffs that U.S. President

Donald Trump has been threatening since February.

That rush to front-run shipments to the U.S. supported the

market against the growing supply, with benchmark copper prices

still up 8.8% so far this year.

Trump on Wednesday surprised markets with pared back tariffs

of 50% on copper pipes and wiring, short of the sweeping

restrictions threatened and leaving out copper ores,

concentrates and cathodes.

The weaker-than-expected tariffs are unlikely to impact

Chinese copper production or demand, according to BMI's Zhao

Yongcheng.