12:57 PM EDT, 08/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) is likely to see a recovery in comparable restaurant sales ahead amid improving traffic and various measures that the company's management is taking, Oppenheimer said Thursday.

The burritos and taco maker's comparable sales in the last two quarters have missed Wall Street's estimates, while its shares are down nearly 30% so far this year, indicating investor concerns.

"However, we are attracted to the model's path for strengthening traffic at a trough valuation multiple," Oppenheimer analysts Brian Bittner and Michael Tamas said in a Thursday note to clients. "Bears believe the business has entered maturity, but our work gets us bullish on a return to mid-single-digit comps in (2026) accompanied by margin expansion and above-average (earnings-per-share) growth."

The brokerage reiterated its outperform rating and a $63 price target on the Chipotle stock. The company's shares were down 2.8% in Thursday afternoon trade.

Last month, Chipotle reported that its second-quarter comparable sales fell 4% versus the Street's views for a 2.9% fall. For the full year, the company expects comparable sales to be about flat, considering the "ongoing volatility in our trends" in the consumer environment, Chief Executive Scott Boatwright said on an earnings conference call, according to a FactSet transcript. The Street is looking for comparable sales growth of 0.1% in 2025.

Although there's "broad-based concern" about the company's ability to achieve the Street's comparable sales projections for the third and fourth quarters, Oppenheimer said that the underlying trends and its updated pricing study give it the confidence in a recovery going forward. The brokerage is projecting comparable sales growth of 4.5% in 2026 versus the Street's model indicating a 4.3% increase.

"Management is taking a proactive approach by increasing marketing spend, better showcasing its value positioning, committing to a (third limited-time offer), and using back-of-house equipment upgrades to enhance throughput," Bittner and Tamas wrote. "While easy comparisons pad the (2026) setup, we view mid-single (same-store sales) as a catalyst."

Oppenheimer increased its 2026 EPS outlook for Chipotle to $1.43 from $1.41.

Price: 42.04, Change: -1.44, Percent Change: -3.31