11:18 AM EDT, 10/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) is expected to see "modest" same-store growth in Q3 that is comparable to peers due to declining traffic trends, Morgan Stanley said in a note Wednesday.

The chain's near-term sales trends appear softer than previously expected, Morgan Stanley analysts said, adding they expect Q3 same-store sales growth of 0.3%, compared with a prior forecast for 2.3% growth.

The analysts also cut their Q4 same-store sales forecast to 0.8% from 2.6%, while full-year same-store sales are now projected to decline about 1%.

The firm said it cut its earnings estimate for Q3 to $0.28 per share from $0.30, with margins under pressure due to lower sales and steady costs.

Guidance for food and labor costs remains within earlier ranges, and full-year unit openings are still forecast at 93, according to the note.

Same-store sales expectations for 2026 are reduced to 3% from about 5%, as the analysts model lighter pricing and traffic trends in H1.

Morgan Stanley maintained an overweight rating on Chipotle and lowered its price target to $59 from $65.

Chipotle is due to report Q3 results after the close on Oct. 29.

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