08:54 AM EST, 12/19/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's payroll survey of employment (SEPH) continues to point towards a weaker recent trend in hiring than the more widely followed labour force survey (LFS), said CIBC.

Employment fell by 21,000 in October, led by declines in education, manufacturing and accommodation & food services. October's decline was the second in a row -- following a revised 23,000 drop in the prior month -- and leaves payroll employment only 0.7% higher on a year-over-year basis, noted the bank.

Job vacancies also fell by 15,000, and the number of unemployed persons per job opening ticked up to 2.8, from 2.7 in the prior month and well above levels seen on average pre-pandemic, stated CIBC.

While fixed-weight wage growth spiked to 6.4%, from 4.6%, this series has been particularly volatile recently and other measures of wage growth have shown better progress, pointed out the bank.

There is reason to believe that the SEPH data could be painting a more accurate picture of recent employment trends than the more widely followed LFS survey, added CIBC. Even though recent quarterly demographic data pointed to a noticeable slowing in population growth, that hasn't been seen as clearly in the LFS's population count.

That suggests the LFS survey is still trying to catch up with past population growth -- a factor that could be flattering monthly employment "increases" within that data series, according to CIBC. Because of that, the recent sluggishness in SEPH hiring should be a concern for policymakers, and the bank continues to expect further -- although smaller -- reductions in interest rates in the New Year as a result.