08:48 AM EDT, 04/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The wheels may be starting to fall off the Canadian labor market, with a 33,000 decline in jobs during March falling well short of consensus forecasts for a 10,000 gain, said CIBC.

By sector, employment fell sharpest in wholesale & retail and information & culture, although the decline in the former only partly offset a big increase in the prior month, noted the bank after Friday's Labour Force Survey (LFS) data.

Staffing levels in areas expected to be the first/hardest hit by United States tariffs were mixed, with transport & warehousing posting an increase while manufacturing employment fell modestly, stated CIBC.

By type of work, the headline decline was driven by full-time, or 62,000, while part-time employment rose. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7%, from 6.6%, and would have risen more were it not for a further decline in participation.

Wage inflation for permanent workers eased unexpectedly to 3.5% year over year, from 4.0% in the prior month.

Overall, Friday's LFS report was weaker than expected, although next week's Bank of Canada surveys and global risk sentiment will also be key in determining whether the BoC continues to cut interest rates or elects to skip a meeting later this month, added CIBC.