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CIBC Comments on Canada's Jobs Report for November
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CIBC Comments on Canada's Jobs Report for November
Dec 6, 2024 6:11 AM

08:47 AM EST, 12/06/2024 (MT Newswires) -- While Canada's employment growth was stronger than expected in November, a jump in participation left the unemployment rate higher than anticipated as well, noted CIBC.

Friday's 50,000 increase in employment was double the consensus forecast of 25,000 , and was led by gains in wholesale & retail, construction and education, said the bank.

However, the detail was generally less positive, stated CIBC. Even though full-time positions drove the headline increase, most of the gains were in public-sector paid employment, with private-sector hiring up by only a modest 6,000.

In addition, a three-tick increase in labor force participation -- which simply offset the reductions seen in the prior two months -- meant that employment growth fell well short of the pace of labor force growth, and as a result, the unemployment rate jumped to 6.8% from 6.5% and relative to a consensus forecast of 6.6%, pointed out the bank.

That included a further increase in joblessness for prime-aged -- 25-54 -- workers. Hours worked fell slightly, while hourly earnings for permanent employees eased more than expected to 3.9% year-over-year from 4.9%.

Friday's data was the final piece of the puzzle before next Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision, and even though the piece didn't fit perfectly, CIBC still sees the picture of a struggling economy that needs the help of another 50bps reduction in rates.

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