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CIBC Comments on Canada's October Labor Market Report
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CIBC Comments on Canada's October Labor Market Report
Nov 9, 2024 1:08 PM

08:53 AM EST, 11/08/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian employment growth was lackluster in October, with the unemployment rate only holding steady because of a further decline in labor market participation, said CIBC.

The 14,500 increase in jobs reported in Friday's Labour Force Survey (LFS) was roughly half the consensus expectation of 27,000 although some of the detail was a little better with all of the employment growth driven by full-time, or 26K,000, and aggregate hours worked rising by 0.3%, noted the bank.

Employment increased for young people, although the ratio of 15-24 with a job remained well below year-ago levels. There was little change in employment in the core aged (25-54) workforce but the employment ratio continued to fall due to population growth.

By sector, the largest gain in jobs was seen in business, building and support services.

The overall unemployment rate held steady at 6.5% versus a consensus of 6.6% but only because participation fell further, stated the bank.

Average hourly earnings for permanent workers unexpectedly accelerated to 4.9% year over year, from 4.5%, but the Bank of Canada has been mix-adjusting this series using more detailed data so this may not be a big concern for policymakers, added CIBC.

With one more employment report before the BoC's next interest rate decision, Friday's release was never going to close the book on the 25bps versus 50bp cut debate, according to the bank. The mixed nature of Friday's data didn't help, but CIBC continues to lean towards another 50bps move.

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