11:55 AM EST, 01/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- CIBC Capital Markets in a note dated Jan. 2, 2026, maintained its outperformer rating and target price of $106 on Cargojet ( CGJTF ) after fourth quarter flight activity.

"We recognize that flight activity does not account for length of haul, but it does help to provide a proxy for how the company performed during peaked season," said CIBC analyst Kevin Chiang. "Our linear regression analysis comparing CJT's quarterly flight activity and its quarterly EBITDA suggests its Q4/25 EBITDA should come in above current consensus expectations."

CIBC noted the company's average daily flight activity in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 71 flights per day, which compares to 74 flights per day the prior year, representing an about 4% year-over-year decline. It noted this is a deceleration in the negative year-over-year growth rate from the low-to mid-teen percent range in Q2 and Q3 of 2025.

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, CIBC noted the company's Q4 average daily flight activity is up 12.9% which compares to the 2019-2024 average of up 2.9% quarter-over-quarter. "We suspect the outsized seasonal improvement reflects the softer Q3/25."

CIBC said CJT is managing through a challenging freight environment, and its Q4 2925 flight activity suggests CJT's Q4 2025 EBITDA should come in above consensus expectations.

It added: "While CJT has not been immune to the pressures facing the broader freight sector, its results continue to point to a more resilient business model. We believe the pressures CJT faces are macro-related, and not due to market share losses or customer attrition. The volatile trade environment has negatively impacted key air freight corridors. As stability returns to the trade front, this should serve as a tailwind for CJT. Despite these challenges, CJT's fleet remains fully utilized, and the revenue headwinds reflect its customers (i.e. DHL) flying shorter routes, resulting in lower block hours. During this difficult period, we are seeing CJT's symbiotic relationship with its strategic clients play out. And as the freight cycle recovers, CJT currently has excess fleet capacity which should drive margin expansion as volumes recover."

Shares in CJT were at last look up 0.6% on the TSX.

Price: 86.16, Change: +0.34, Percent Change: +0.40