08:55 AM EDT, 06/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales were both weaker than expected in April, suggesting the monthly gross domestic product may also be revised lower relative to its first estimate, said CIBC.

The 2.8% month-over-month decline in manufacturing sales was weaker than the 2.0% drop expected by the consensus based on the advance estimate, noted the bank. Oil products, and by extension lower prices, played a role in the headline decline, but sales excluding oil products and total sales volumes were still both 1.8% lower than in March.

Auto and metals sales also fell sharply, with respondents in these areas unsurprisingly among those stating that they were most negatively impacted by United States tariffs, stated CIBC. Inventories were also lower on the month, which is another negative indicator for production included within the monthly GDP figures.

Separately, wholesale sales also fell more than expected in April -- 2.3% month-over-month lower versus a 0.9% consensus slip -- with volumes declining by slightly more than 2%. The auto sector once again saw the largest decline, and supplemental questions showed 43% of respondents reporting negative impacts from U.S. tariffs, added the bank.

Overall, Friday's data suggests that April GDP will be downgraded from the surprisingly positive +0.1% first estimate, according to CIBC. Even accounting for the fact that value added (GDP) in sectors such as autos is lower relative to sales, April GDP is probably more likely to come in at a flat reading or possibly a slight negative, which would also leave Q2 tracking broadly flat relative to the prior quarter.