02:15 PM EDT, 08/30/2024 (MT Newswires) -- According to CIBC's Avery Shenfeld, there is a case for larger rate cuts when we're sitting at what's now an "excessively elevated" real interest rate, and monthly GDP readings point to a material undershoot of the Bank of Canada's Q3 growth forecast. But, he noted, we saw no hints that a 50 bp move was actively considered at the last meeting, and having to move ahead of the jobs figures will likely hold them to another 25 bp cut. Still, at least in the press conference on Wednesday, Shenfeld said Governor Macklem will signal both the timing and size of further rate cuts could be impacted by upcoming data, which will have markets paying close heed to Friday's employment report. "Canadian jobs data are always a wildcard, being based only on a choppy household survey, but a weak patch for GDP growth in early summer suggests that we'll see another month in which hiring fails to keep pace with population growth, pushing the unemployment rate up a tick," he added.

(The CIBC data calendar -- noting that markets are closed Monday for Labour Day -- notes July Trade data is also due out Wednesday; Q2 Labour Productivity is due Thursday; and both Employment and IVEY PMI for August data is due Friday.)

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