(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, the

director of the Geoeconomics Program of the Center for the Study

of Democracy.)

By Martin Vladimirov

SOFIA, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Nearly four years after

Europe's energy crisis erupted in late 2021, the continent has

moved from emergency response to system redesign. But the

European Union is not out of the woods. Deep vulnerabilities

persist, and progress toward clean, secure and affordable supply

is highly uneven across the continent.

The Energy and Climate Security Risk Index (ECSRI), developed by

the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), measures energy

security across four pillars: geopolitics, affordability,

reliability and sustainability. Its findings reveal a widening

energy security divide between leaders like France, Sweden and

Denmark and laggards such as Hungary, Italy and Bulgaria.

Europe's biggest success on the energy security front has

been reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Gas imports

from Russia have fallen from about 40% of EU supply in 2021 to

around 10% in 2025, according to Eurostat. EU members achieved

this by boosting purchases from the U.S., Norway and Qatar.

Countries such as Italy and Germany that used to be some of

the biggest consumers of Russian energy have almost ceased

Russian gas imports, but several nations in Central Europe

remain highly exposed. Hungary still buys more than

three-quarters of its gas from Russia, based on estimates using

Eurostat data, and Slovakia remains tied to Russia's Gazprom

contracts.

New dependencies are also emerging, however.

First, the EU now gets much of its liquefied natural gas

(LNG) from the U.S., leaving it vulnerable in future

negotiations with Washington on trade or other matters.

Additionally, Europe's rapid buildout of solar, wind and

battery infrastructure has increased Europe's reliance on

Chinese supply chains.

China dominates refining of many critical minerals. It processes

over 60% of global lithium, 80% of cobalt, and around 70% of

rare earths, all critical for the EU energy sector. Without

diversification, Europe risks replacing one dependency with

another.

Yet Europe is not without options. France has significantly

increased its silicon refining capacity for solar manufacturing,

while Sweden already supplies up to 90% of the EU's domestically

produced iron ore and is expanding its copper and zinc output.

Portugal is developing vast lithium reserves, and Finland hosts

major nickel and zinc refineries.

In the EU's neighbourhood, Serbia's Jadar mine could meet

nearly 90% of Europe's lithium current needs if commissioned,

though those needs are expected to rise significantly in the

coming years. Ukraine is also believed to hold significant

titanium and rare earth deposits, but whether these can be mined

and processed profitably remains an open question.

AFFORDABILITY CHALLENGES

If geopolitics defined energy policy in 2022, affordability

is now the central challenge. Affordability risks in Europe have

surged fivefold since 2020 largely due to the price shocks

following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Retail power and gas bills remain 40-70% above pre-crisis

levels in Southern and Eastern Europe, with coal-heavy Poland,

Bulgaria and the Czech Republic the most vulnerable, based on an

analysis of Eurostat data. Nordic countries and France, with

less-carbon-intensive systems, face much lower affordability

risks.

European industry remains under significant pressure due to high

energy costs. Between 2021 and 2024, more than 1 million

industrial jobs disappeared from Europe, largely due to elevated

energy costs. Without long-term clean power contracts and

stronger efficiency measures, Europe risks losing

competitiveness.

RELIABILITY ISSUES

The nature of energy reliability risks has also shifted in

Europe. In an energy system dominated by fossil fuels, the

challenge was securing supply. Today, the problem is that

renewables are being rapidly integrated into grids without the

infrastructure to underpin them.

A clear example of this was the blackout that struck the

Iberian Peninsula in April. The sudden loss of 15 gigawatts of

solar power overwhelmed systems dominated by inverter-based

generation that lacked sufficient backup.

Wealthier states like Germany and the Netherlands are

investing in digitalised grids, interconnections and storage.

However, in Central and Eastern Europe, outdated grids and

limited investment leave energy systems exposed to future

outages.

SUSTAINABILITY GAP

On sustainability, the EU has set ambitious goals through

the Green Deal, Fit for 55 and REPowerEU. But implementation is

uneven across the region.

For example, Sweden, Denmark and Finland have combined

renewables, industrial decarbonisation and strong governance to

reduce their risk here. And France benefits from nuclear power,

which has kept a lid on emissions and costs.

In contrast, many Central and Eastern members are

constrained by legacy infrastructure and weaker governance. In

turn, they are seeing both emissions and energy costs rise.

Importantly, the ECSRI suggests that energy risks tend to

cluster, as countries with high sustainability risks also

typically face affordability and geopolitical challenges. Those

integrating clean energy, industrial strategy and grid

investment are more resilient across the board.

The past four years proved Europe can act in crisis, but the

next phase of the energy transition will require more than just

reactive policy. It will demand a long-term coherent strategy

and better coordination across the region - a heavy lift. But

the energy security data make one thing clear: without closing

the energy policy divide, Europe's prosperity and sovereignty

remain at risk.

(The views expressed here are those of Martin Vladimirov,

Director of the Geoeconomics Program of the Center for the Study

of Democracy (CSD)).

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(Writing by Martin Vladimirov; Editing by Anna Szymanski and

Marguerita Choy)