(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

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Trump says India pledged to cut Russian crude imports

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India bought 40% of Russian crude exports so far in 2025

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Halting purchases will hurt Moscow, but is unlikely to cut

its

exports

By Ron Bousso

LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) -

Donald Trump is putting more pressure on India to slash its

Russian oil purchases. This could deprive Moscow of vital

revenue, but it will mostly just push more Russian oil into an

increasingly large shadow market.

The U.S. president said on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister

Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, an

agreement India has yet to confirm.

India has become a major trade buyer of Russian oil since

Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It purchased 1.9 million

barrels per day (bpd) of Russia's crude in the first nine months

of 2025, 40% of its total exports, according to the

International Energy Agency.

This U.S. pressure on New Delhi comes as Kyiv has been striking

Russia's energy infrastructure.

Moreover, Trump appears to be focused once again on resolving

the conflict in Ukraine after negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza.

He announced last week that he and Russian President Vladimir

Putin will be meeting for another summit after a "successful"

phone call.

This all suggests that we may be entering a new stage in the

West's efforts to squeeze the Kremlin, so barring a breakthrough

at the upcoming summit, the pressure on India to trim its

Russian crude purchase is unlikely to let up.

A FINANCIAL HIT

India probably will acquiesce to U.S. pressure as part of a

broad trade deal. Washington has already hit Indian goods with a

25% import tariff in retaliation for New Delhi's purchases of

Russian oil.

Indeed, some Indian refiners are already preparing to cut

Russian oil imports, though any drop won't be visible before

December at the earliest.

Meanwhile, Indian refiners face another challenge. The European

Union will impose a ban on imports of fuel refined from Russian

crude as of January 21 next year. Europe accounts for over a

third of India's diesel and aviation fuel exports.

The new U.S. and EU measures will likely be financially

painful for India's refineries, as they have been enjoying

healthy margins by buying Russian crude at significant discounts

to international prices.

And the two countries' energy markets are already heavily

intertwined.

Private refiner Reliance, which operates one of the

world's largest refining complexes in western India, last year

signed a giant 10-year deal with Russian state-owned oil firm

Rosneft to supply nearly 500,000 bpd of crude.

Rosneft also owns a 49% stake in another major Indian refiner,

Nayara, whose 400,000 bpd Vadinar refinery relies exclusively on

Russian oil imports. It already faces EU and British sanctions,

which have caused it to reduce its operating rates, though it is

unlikely to fully cease importing Russian crude.

CHINA TO THE RESCUE?

But let's assume that India can severely cut its Russian oil

purchases, even if it can't reduce them to zero. What would

happen to the Russian crude volumes India stops buying?

First, Chinese refiners may opt to increase their purchases,

particularly if the discount with international prices widens.

China remains the biggest buyer of Russian oil, importing 2.1

million bpd between January and September via land and sea,

roughly 18% of the country's total crude imports. It has also

tightened its energy ties with Moscow this year and is importing

liquefied natural gas from a heavily sanctioned Russian plant.

Yet Beijing has historically refrained from relying on one

country for more than 20% of its oil imports. So by that

measure, refiners would likely have little capacity to increase

Russian barrels that India could reasonably be expected to

reduce.

Moreover, Trump is also putting pressure on China to reduce

Russian oil purchases amid simmering trade tensions between the

world's two largest economies. Beijing might therefore be wary

of further provoking Washington, particularly given that it can

already buy crude at attractive prices.

INTO THE SHADOWS

Any remaining Russian barrels will thus likely move into the

rapidly growing shadow market.

Russia has developed a vast network of ageing tankers to

evade international sanctions. In September, 69% of Russia's

seaborne crude exports were carried on "shadow fleet" tankers,

according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

This vast trade scheme often uses ship-to-ship oil transfers

in mid-ocean to obscure the oil supplies' origins.

It is therefore likely that any Russian oil that would

typically have gone to India directly will simply end up in the

shadow market. At that point, its country of origin would be

obscured, meaning it could end up in many places, including

India.

To be sure, the loss of a major market such as India will

certainly narrow Russia's pool of buyers, forcing it to sell oil

at bigger discounts, eating into Moscow's revenue. Already,

lower oil and gas prices are hitting Moscow's budget.

But the West's efforts to squeeze Russia's vast oil industry

are unlikely to lead to a drop in Russian production or exports.

They may simply reduce visibility in what is becoming an

increasingly opaque market.

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(Ron Bousso

Editing by Marguerita Choy)