06:14 AM EDT, 06/24/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries (UST) are rangebound in Asia with most stock markets in the red, except for Japan, and e-minis also lower. Yen (JPY) weakens, JPY hovers near record 160 level, euro (EUR) little changed around $1.069. Brent stabilizes around $85/barrel after Friday's drop.

US: NewYork Federal Reserve gross domestic product (GDP) Nowcast holds steady near 1.9% for Q2 and rises slightly to 2.17% from 2.13% for Q3. St Louis Fed model sees Q2 growth at 0.8%, down from 0.94%.

== EUROPE:

ECB: Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel says the "last mile" of disinflation is proving bumpy, and the European Central Bank hasn't pre-committed to a fixed-rate path due to the threat of new price shocks (slide pack).

France: Polls show far-right National Rally (RN) consolidating its lead in the 33%-36% range, followed by Popular Front (NFP) at 28%-29.5% and President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance at 19%-22%. Odaxa poll sees chances for RN to win an absolute majority. Macron's approval rating falls 4pp to 28%. Respondents have the most confidence in Marine Le Pen's RN on economic issues (25%), ahead of NFP (22%) and Macron's alliance (20%) (Ipsos). Le Pen says Macron may have to resign if the elections lead to gridlock. The leftist alliance would raise the top marginal income tax rate to 90%.

Germany: Prime Minister Olaf Scholz will stick to the social agenda and reconcile it with aid to Ukraine. He's "confident" that the budget will get on its way in July.

Netherlands: Q1 GDP was revised to -0.5% from -0.1% (consensus: -0.1%).

UK: Labour considers raising capital gains and inheritance taxes in Britain if it wins next month's parliamentary election (Guardian).

== ASIA:

Trade: The European Union and China agree to start talks on electric vehicle tariffs. China wants the EU to scrap tariffs on EVs by July 4. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said during a visit to China that tariffs on Chinese goods aren't a "punishment."

Japan: Tokyo's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda says Japan is ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets "24 hours a day."