06:00 AM EDT, 07/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries (UST) slightly weaker in late New York session, futures flat in Asia with no cash trading given the US Independence Day holiday. E-minis remain on the highs, Japan's Topix hits a record high after 34 years. EUR weakens below $1.079. Brent rallies on inventory drop, then declines below $87/barrel.

Fed: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee wants "a lot" more data before cutting rates. Minutes from the June meeting show that officials don't intend to lower rates until "additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence" that inflation is moving towards 2%. A "vast majority" said that growth appears to be cooling.

US: Top Democrats back President Joe Biden after White House meeting while others consider signing a letter demanding Biden to withdraw; Biden says that no one is pushing him out of the race. Vice President Kamala Harris is outperforming Biden against former President Donald Trump in polls.

Atlanta GDPNow suggests Q2 growth at 1.55% from 1.73% earlier.

== EUROPE:

ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council (GC) member Yannis Stournaras calls two more cuts this year reasonable and adds that rates would then still be in restrictive territory. GC members warn of risks to the economy, tell FT it was too early to speculate about whether they could be forced to intervene if France suffered a former United Kingdom Prime Minister "Liz Truss moment".

Germany: Verdi services union and private banks agree on a 5.5% wage increase from next month, 3% from August 2025 and another 2% from July 2026.

France: Marine Le Pen's far-right party RN may get 190-220 seats after the runoffs, short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority, Leftist 159-183 and Macron's group 110-135 (Harris Poll).

UK: Labour leader Keir Starmer doesn't believe the UK will rejoin the European Union's single market or customs union in his lifetime.