06:45 AM EDT, 08/19/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries (UST) open lower in Asia, then make up initial losses. Nikkei drops 1.5% and e-minis erase initial gains while Chinese stocks are up. Yen (JPY) extends gain versus the US dollar (USD) below 146, the euro (EUR) increases to $1.104. Brent trades around $79.5/barrel, gold hits record, then consolidates.

Fed: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly has "more confidence" that inflation is under control and rates can be adjusted; she adds that economy is "not in an urgent place" though. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee says that "if you keep too tight for too long, you will have a problem on the employment side of the Fed's mandate."

US: Vice President Kamala Harris at 49%, former President Donald Trump at 45% in ABC/Washington Post poll.

US nowcasts: Atlanta Fed GDPNow suggests Q3 growth at 1.99% from 2.44%. NY Fed gross domestic product (GDP) Nowcast predicts 1.84% from 2.24%.

CFTC: Asset managers increased net longs in UST futures to a new record in 2-10y. Leveraged investors increase shorts to new records. Speculative yen shorts were reduced further to about flat.

Middle East: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday to intensify push for Gaza ceasefire. A meeting in Cairo with the US, Qatar and Egypt is scheduled for later this week.

== EUROPE:

Germany: The government reaches a deal on the 2025 budget with a 12 billion euros funding gap; new requests for aid to Ukraine will no longer be granted to rein in spending (FAZ). Head of the Green party Omid Nouripour says the current coalition is an "interim government."

Ratings: Fitch affirms Belgium at AA-, maintains negative outlook. Moody's affirms Ireland at Aa3 and changes outlook to positive from stable.

== ASIA:

Japan: Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa to run in LDP leadership race on Sept. 27.