06:24 AM EDT, 09/16/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries are supported in Asia amid weaker stocks and mixed e-minis. The euro briefly rose above $1.11. Brent falls to $71.50/barrel.

US: New York Fed gross domestic product Nowcasts weaken slightly to 2.57% for Q3 and to 2.17% for Q4. St. Louis model sees Q3 at 1.57%, down from 2.06%. Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a polling lead over former President Donald Trump on economic issues at 44% versus 42% (FT). 56% of voters would support a candidate backing new tariffs (Reuters/Ipsos). Trump is safe after Secret Service foils assassination attempt at golf club.

Canada: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is open to increasing the pace of rate cuts, says BoC could switch to 50bps cut if growth disappoints.

== EUROPE:

ECB: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is open to an October cut "if there is a significant change," but "next comprehensive set of information will only be available at the following meeting." Governing Council (GC) member Joachim Nagel says the ECB must remain attentive on inflation, even though "we assume that we will reach our target by the end of 2025 at the latest." GC member Pierre Wunsch says rates should fall further, but "small risk that it will happen more slowly if services inflation remains elevated."

France: Prime Minister Michel Barnier is expected to form a government this week. His approval rating is at 34%, President Emmanuel Macron at 30% (Ipsos poll). Far-right head Marine Le Pen says the current situation "won't hold" and she predicts a fresh round of legislative elections within a year. Far-right party RN unveils economic program, including tax cuts for corporations, measures to favor citizens and reform of ECB rules.

Italy: Government mulls new tax on banks and insurers' extra profits from high interest rates to help finance the budget (Repubblica).

Ratings: Moody's raises outlook for Greece to positive from stable, affirms Ba1 (one notch below IG). S&P upgrades Croatia to A- from BBB+, maintains positive outlook. Fitch affirms Germany, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia at AAA/stable, and Malta at A+/stable.

==ASIA:

China: Industrial production and retail sales slow more than expected to 4.5% year over year while consensus was at 4.7% and 2.1% while consensus was 2.5%, respectively.