06:16 AM EDT, 03/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: Risk off! United States Treasuries surge into New York close, remain underpinned in Asia. U.S. stock sagged on Friday, e-minis weaken further, Nikkei (-4%) leads Asian stocks lower. DXY is on the back foot. Brent tests downside around $73.4/barrel.

Fed: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly still sees two rate cuts this year as "reasonable" projection, but doesn't feel comfortable starting rate cuts now as inflation data confirms her decreased confidence in her baseline expectation.

Tariffs: President Donald Trump weighs an across-the-board tariff hike of up to 20% (WSJ sources). Trump says he "couldn't care less" if carmakers raise prices as people will start buying American-made cars. Trump is open to make deals with countries that want to avoid U.S. tariffs "if we get something in return", but probably not before Wednesday, "it's a process."

U.S.: Trump won't rule out seeking third term in White House, says "there are methods" (NBC).

U.S.: NY Fed gross domestic product Nowcast increased to 2.86% from 2.72% for Q1, and is little changed at 2.63% for Q2. Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow falls to -2.8% from -1.81%.

U.S./Russia: Trump threatens "secondary tariffs" on buyers of Russian oil if President Vladimir Putin refuses a ceasefire. He is "very angry" at Putin for casting doubt on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's legitimacy.

Geopolitics: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pledges "credible deterrent" for Taiwan. Internal Pentagon document states that it is "unlikely" that the U.S. would provide significant military support in Europe should Russia advance militarily (Washington Post).

==EUROPE:

Tariffs: The European Union plans countermeasures in various escalation levels, with tariffs on high-quality branded clothing or agricultural products such as soya, starting on April 14 (Tagesspiegel).

U.S./Europe: U.S. Embassy in Paris writes to French companies asking them to stop programs against discrimination and to fill out a form within five days.

Germany: Center-left SPD expresses satisfaction with coalition talks, center-right CSU demands more willingness to compromise. CSU's Alexander Dobrindt rules out tax hikes. SPD General Secretary Matthias Miersch says the members' voting on the coalition treaty will be a challenge.

Portugal doesn't want to jeopardise budget surplus with higher defense spending (FT).

Banks: UniCredit receives European Central Bank permission to acquire Banco BPM.

Ratings: Moody's completes review of Spain without changes. S&P lowers outlook for Baden-Wurttemberg to stable from positive, affirms AA+. Scope affirms the United Kingdom at AA/stable.

==ASIA:

China: Four large state-owned banks plan to raise $72 billion in capital. Manufacturing PMI rises 0.3 percentage point to 50.5 as expected, non-manufacturing PMI is up 0.4pt to 50.8 while the consensus was 50.6.