06:25 AM EDT, 06/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries recovered into New York close, consolidate in Asia. Bund future remains close to Friday's low. Asian stocks are mixed, e-minis are supported after U.S. equities closed lower. EUR turned rangebound around $1.1530. Brent gapped higher, then fell back below $75/barrel.

U.S.: President Donald Trump pauses immigration arrests at farms, restaurants and hotels.

Fed to release stress test results on June 27.

Geopolitics: Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Middle East and Ukraine in a one-hour phone call, and Russia is ready to mediate between Israel, Iran, U.S.

Middle East: Trump vetoed the Israeli plan to kill Iran's leader Khamenei (Reuters). Trump believes in an Israel-Iran deal, while "sometimes they have to fight it out," says the U.S. could get involved." Iran rejects ceasefire negotiations while under attack. Iranian general threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz.

==EUROPE:

ECB: President Christine Lagarde says the European Central Bank is within reach of 2% inflation target, and uncertainty from the U.S. tariff announcement or the threats is dampening global investments, "it's really a lose-lose situation" (interview). Vice President Luis de Guindos says risk of undershooting the inflation target is very limited, risks to inflation are balanced. Bloomberg poll sees final 25bps rate cut in September.

Ratings: S&P affirms Germany at AAA/stable. Fitch downgrades Belgium to A+ from AA-, changes outlook to stable from negative, due to "moderate upward trend for general government debt/GDP". S&P downgrades Brussels region to A/negative from A+/stable. Scope affirms Poland at A/stable.

==ASIA:

China: Retail sales accelerated to 6.4% year over year in May, while the consensus was 4.9%, industrial production slowed slightly to 5.8%, while the consensus was 6.0%.