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Commerzbank on Overnight News
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Commerzbank on Overnight News
Jun 25, 2025 3:57 AM

06:36 AM EDT, 06/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Wednesday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries remain better bid in late New York session, slightly weaker in Asia. E-minis remain close to Tuesday's highs, Asian stocks are mixed. EUR trades at $1.162. Brent stabilizes around $68/barrel.

Fed: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees no rush to cut rates as economy is still strong; expects rate cuts "rather sooner than later" if inflation pressure remains contained. He also says that USD is still number-one safe-haven currency and thinks changes to leverage ratio would help UST markets.

More Fed: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari wants more clarity on the tariff impact before adjusting monetary policy. Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr expects tariffs to cause higher inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins considers modestly restrictive monetary policy necessary. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams thinks it is "entirely appropriate" to hold rates steady.

US: Intelligence report says that bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities likely only sets back program by a few months. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff claims reports that US did not achieve its objectives in Iran are "completely preposterous."

==EUROPE:

ECB: Governing Council Philip Lane says the European Central Bank would react to "material" changes in inflation outlook while ignoring "tiny" ones.

EU warns of retaliatory tariffs if the U.S. insists on asymmetrical deal, including if the 10% baseline tariffs remain.

France: Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's administration faces a no-confidence vote within 48 hours after pension talks failed.

Italy: The treasury announces to tap BTP 2.7% Oct30 (1.25 billion-1.5 billion euros), 2.95% July30 (1.25 billion-1.5 billion euros), 3.6% Oct35 (3.0 billion-3.5 billion euros) and CCTeu Apr34 (1.5 billion-2.0 billion euros) on Friday. Treasury announces to launch new three-, seven- and 10-year BTP in Q3. Implications for gross funding in 2025 ranges from 338 billion-348 billion euros, slightly below earlier guidance.

BoE: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey says quantitative tightening (QT) decision will be "more interesting this year" given the steepening of the yield curve.

==ASIA:

Japan: Bank of Japan's Board member Naoki says rates may need to rise decisively if upside inflation risks rise.

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