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Commerzbank on Overnight News
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Commerzbank on Overnight News
Jul 14, 2025 3:55 AM

06:31 AM EDT, 07/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries open slightly better bid, Bund future also opens above Friday's lows, Japanese government bond long-end is under pressure. Global equity futures weaken with Europe underperforming. EUR moderately weaker at $1.168. Brent continues to trade around $70.5/barrel. Bitcoin rises above $120,000.

Tariffs: U.S. President Donald Trump's letters to the European Union and Mexico announce a 30% tariff from Aug. 1. He will consider an adjustment if the EU can offer better terms. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suspends planned tariffs on 21 billion euros of U.S. goods until "early August"; wants to continue to work towards an agreement, but is also preparing countermeasures. German Prime Minister Friedrich Merz says a 30% tariff would hit German exporters "to the core."

Fed: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee says the latest tariffs on Canada and Brazil create new inflation concerns, arguing for rates to remain unchanged.

U.S.: President Trump's top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, says rates are "at least 50 basis points" too high, calls Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a "political animal." Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh says the Fed should cut rates now.

Russia-Ukraine war: Trump says he plans to send patriot missiles to Ukraine but stresses that "we're not paying anything for them." The new plans include sending "offensive weapons" (Axios).

==EUROPE:

BoE: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey says "I really do believe the path is downward" on interest rates, warns banks against issuing their own stablecoins.

EU to reach out to other countries hit by tariffs for cooperation (Bloomberg).

France to increase defence spending to 64 billion euros by 2027 (instead of by 2029), requiring an additional 3.5 billion euros next year and 3.2 billion euros thereafter.

Germany: Finance ministry paper on debt brake reform wants to allow additional infrastructure investment beyond 12 years of special funds (FAZ).

Ratings: Fitch affirms Germany at AAA/stable.

==ASIA:

India/U.S. are working on cutting baseline tariff below 20%, versus 26% initially proposed, according to Bloomberg sources.

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