06:31 AM EST, 03/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries reverse initial safe-haven bid and bear steepen after conciliatory messages from Iran and the U.S. Asian stocks decline around 1.5%-2%, U.S. stock futures decline around 1%. US dollar (USD) stronger on a choppy trend. Brent briefly jumped almost 15% to $82/barrel before stabilizing near $78.

Middle East: The US and Israel coordinated missile attacks on Iran, kill Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 48 senior Iranian figures. President Donald Trump says his potential candidates to lead Iran were killed. Trump calls on Iran's generals to either hand power to the nation's people or embrace a model similar to Venezuela. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ agrees to increase output by 206,000 barrels/day in April.

Latest developments: Iranian security chief says "we will not negotiate with US", WSJ reported earlier that he seeks to resume nuclear talks with U.S. President Trump. Iran launches a new wave of missiles and drones on U.S. bases early Monday. Britain's RAF base in Cyprus was targeted by two drones, one was intercepted.

Russia-Ukraine war: Russia considers there is no point to continue U.S.-led peace talks with Ukraine unless Kyiv is willing to cede territory (Bloomberg).

==EUROPE:

ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel says the inflation picture in the euro area is "favorable overall" and doubts regarding the safe-haven status of the US dollar have risen.

France: President Emmanuel Macron will update nuclear doctrine on Monday with "some significant shifts."

The European Union and India have agreed to grant each other "Most Favored Nation" status for five years.

Ratings: Moody's upgrades Slovenia to A2 from A3, changes outlook to stable from positive. S&P raises outlook for Portugal (A+) to positive, and for Saxony (AAA) to stable. DBRS confirms Netherlands at AAA/stable. Fitch affirms Poland at A-/negative.