06:34 AM EDT, 03/20/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note Friday highlighted:

Markets: Brent drops on Israel energy infrastructure pledge, rangebound in Asia. United States Treasuries jump, futures fade in Asia. U.S. equities also jump, e-minis sideways in Asia. US dollar (USD), gold recover.

Iran war: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel "will no longer target energy infrastructure." Sees war end "a lot faster than people think," Tehran would no longer be able to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles.

Energy: G7, excluding the U.S. but including the Netherlands, condemns Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and civilian infrastructure in joint statement. Will take steps to stabilize the energy markets and are ready to contribute "appropriate efforts" in the Hormuz Strait.

ECB sources: The European Central Bank would be ready to hike rates at the next meeting if the Iran war pushes inflation too far above target (Bloomberg). ECB may need to begin discussing rate hikes in April, with a move more likely in June (Reuters).

ECB: Governing Council (GC) member Joachim Nagel says ECB would need to hike in April if inflation outlook sours. GC member Martins Kazaks says ECB shouldn't exaggerate situation, will take stock in April. GC member Madis Muller says the situation is different from 2022, ECB can be a bit calmer. GC member Yannis Stournaras warns conflict is an additional adverse supply shock for the global and the euro-area economy." European Council greenlights Boris Vujcic for ECB vice presidency role.

BoE: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey says markets shouldn't reach "any strong conclusions about us raising interest rates," argues "the right place to be is on hold..

EU: President Ursula Von der Leyen says the European Commission will propose 30 billion euros "ETS Investment Booster" to finance decarbonization projects. No agreement on Ukraine loan. European Union leaders call for "moratorium" on strikes against energy facilities, and for temporary measures to mitigate the impact of energy prices, with electricity tax cuts, lower grid fees and state support.