06:43 AM EDT, 03/26/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries weaken after the five-year auction, stabilize in the late New York session before falling in Asia. Front-end Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rise to new highs. E-minis soften amid weaker Asian equities. Key foreign exchange pairs little changed. Brent rises to $104/barrel. Gold below $4,500/oz.

Fed: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran thinks it's appropriate to get to the neutral rate this year, says he raised his Fed rate projection on inflation data. Expects AI and deregulation to be disinflationary. Oil shock might put upward pressure on unemployment, but not impact longer-term inflation expectations.

Fed: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praises the Bank of England as a role model in recasting ties between Fed and Treasury (FT).

U.S.: President Donald Trump to travel to China on May 14-15, plans to host Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington later this year.

Iran war: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the U.S. military is ahead of schedule, reiterates 4-6 week timeline. The US has been in "productive talks" over the last three days, Iranian regime is "looking for an exit ramp." Congress authorization not necessary now; will "unleash hell" if Iran doesn't accept defeat. Administration is working on "creative" solutions on oil prices, working to reopen tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but no timeline yet.

Iran war: President Trump tells aides he thinks Iran war is in final stages, U.S. and Israel remove Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi from target list (WSJ sources). Trump rejected Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's idea to call for an Iranian uprising (Axios sources). Iran is drafting a law to impose Strait of Hormuz transit tolls (Fars).

==EUROPE:

ECB: Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau says the European Central Bank will do what is needed to get inflation to 2% and isn't pre-committed to any rate path, says it's premature to debate when rates may rise; no particular financial stability concerns at present.

France: The central bank (BdF) cuts 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.0%, raises inflation forecast to 1.7% from 1.3%.

Italy: The government plans to cut the 2026 growth forecast to as low as 0.5% (Bloomberg sources).

==ASIA:

Japan: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda says large JGB holdings don't complicate policy adjustments.

Japan begins releasing national oil reserves. The provisional budget is seen totaling about 8.6 trillion yen (NHK).