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Commerzbank Says Not to Be "Deceived" by The Strong Job Growth in Canada
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Commerzbank Says Not to Be "Deceived" by The Strong Job Growth in Canada
Dec 9, 2024 6:27 AM

09:03 AM EST, 12/09/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Friday's Canadian employment report for November was rather mixed, said Commerzbank.

The only bright spot was that job growth was almost twice as strong as expected, driven by an increase in full-time positions, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

However, the other indicators once again showed that the Canadian labor market is nowhere near as strong as its United States counterpart: the unemployment rate rose surprisingly sharply to its highest level in more than three years, thanks in part to a higher participation rate; wage pressures eased markedly; and total hours worked fell month-on-month despite the increase in jobs.

All in all, there are plenty of warning signs for the Bank of Canada ahead of its final interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday, stated Commerzbank.

The bank continues to expect a further 50bps rate cut at Wednesday's policy meeting. Not only the weak labor market but also the recent weak growth suggest that the BoC will cut rates again.

At the same time, the BoC is likely to see through the recent rise in inflation, added Commerzbank. It will probably take a few months for the more expansionary effect of the rate cuts to filter through to the real economy.

Until then, the bank doesn't expect the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) to recover "significantly."

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