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Analysts project 2024 sales to top 15.8 million vehicles

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GM's sales near 2.7 million, Stellantis ( STLA ) and Tesla face

challenges

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EV sales rise to 8% of total, up slightly from 2023

By Nora Eckert

DETROIT, Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. new-car sales in 2024

continued to rise from their pandemic lows, bolstered by

replenished inventories and higher incentives, analysts

estimated.

Sales are expected to top 15.8 million, the highest level

since 2019, with General Motors ( GM ) defending its 2023 sales

crown, they said.

"It's been a volatile year for the new-vehicle market, but

it is expected to finish on a high note," said Charlie

Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive.

Those strong sales have been supported by what GM Chief

Financial Officer Paul Jacobson called a "remarkably" resilient

consumer. The Detroit automaker's sales are near 2.7 million for

the year, Cox analysts estimated.

Automakers will report their final sales tallies throughout

the day on Friday.

It was a good year for most major automakers, except for

Jeep-maker Stellantis ( STLA ) and electric vehicle giant

Tesla which did not notch year-over-year sales gains

like the others.

Stellantis ( STLA ) had a particularly rocky 2024, with sales of its

popular Ram, Jeep and Dodge brands all decreasing, third-quarter

company reports show. The French-Italian automaker grappled with

fallout from an aggressive pricing strategy that ultimately led

to former CEO Carlos Tavares' abrupt departure.

Tesla has faced slowing sales as its lineup grows stale, and

competition in China intensifies, eating into an important

market for the company run by Elon Musk.

U.S. sales of electric vehicles are expected to approach 1.3

million, or about 8% of all new vehicles purchased, Cox said.

Buyers' willingness to go electric crept up slightly from 2023,

when U.S. drivers bought 1.2 million EVs, comprising 7.6% of all

sales, Cox said.

Customers may have flocked to these battery-powered models

more in the fourth quarter as they scrambled to take advantage

of EV tax credits, which could disappear under Republican

President-elect Donald Trump.

The Trump administration's plans would likely affect auto

sales in 2025 and beyond, if the incoming president makes good

on plans to roll back Democratic President Joe Biden's EV

policies, as well as increase tariffs on imports from Mexico and

Canada.

EASING STICKER SHOCK

Shoppers found more vehicle discounts this winter, J.D.

Power found. The average incentive spend per vehicle is expected

to grow 30.7% from December 2023 to December 2024, on track to

reach $3,442, the firm found.

That holiday shopping energy will likely carry into the new

year, analysts said.

"As the positive trends of 2024 continue into 2025, improved

overall inventory and greater availability of affordable

vehicles are expected to sustain sales momentum," Thomas King,

president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, said

in a statement.

Cox analysts expect new-vehicle sales to grow about 3% in

2025.