01:04 PM EDT, 10/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Bank stocks have outperformed the TSX by ~250 bps year-to-date and the group's forward NTM P/E multiple has risen to an average of ~13.2x vs ~11x at the beginning of the year and 10.2x at the trough in April 2025, notes UBS.

UBS's crowding data also shows a more positive positioning. The Big Six Bank's skew long with an average factor of ~2.3 as of October (net neutral factor is 0), with a consistent upward trajectory since ~July 30.

A month before third-quarter earnings (~July 30), sentiment on the Big Six shifted from net short to net long, and recorded a +0.25 tick-up in the net crowding score heading into the third-quarter reporting period. Following strong results despite macro and trade uncertainty, the crowding score jumped +2, UBS notes. The more positive sentiment came as the Big Six posted strong quarterly earnings highlighted by resilient credit quality, strong revenues driven by both healthy NIMs and robust performance across wealth and capital markets.

TD, RBC, CIBC, BMO, and Scotiabank show net long positioning with positive crowding scores. TD stands out within the group with the highest net long crowding factor with a score of ~6.0, ~1.7 points higher than their closest peer (RY at ~4.3), UBS reports.

TD has also shown the greatest uptick in net long positioning across the last month (+4) and three months (+5.9). TD's net long positioning saw an uptick over September ahead of its Sept. 29 investor where management unveiled new medium term targets (~2029) which included ROE of ~16% and EPS CAGR of 7% - 10%.

Other banks with a net long positioning are RBC with a crowding score at ~4.3, CIBC at ~2.9, BMO ~2.6, Scotiabank ~2.1 as of October.

UBS used its proprietary Quant Research Crowding Tracker to gauge investor positioning.

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