Oct 23 (Reuters) - David Ellison's Paramount Skydance ( PSKY ) is
seen as the top contender to buy Warner Bros Discovery ( WBD ), with
analysts and experts saying the tech scion's access to deep
pockets and Washington ties give him an edge in what could be
the media industry's biggest merger in years.
Fresh off the Paramount-Skydance ( PSKY ) deal in August, the newly
minted media mogul is eyeing one of Hollywood's prized assets
that is home to HBO, Warner Bros Studio and a streaming unit
with more than 120 million subscribers.
His $60 billion approach was rejected by Warner Bros
Discovery ( WBD ) on Tuesday, Reuters first reported. But the
company has put a for-sale sign and attracted other potential
suitors including Comcast ( CMCSA ), Netflix ( NFLX ) and Apple ( AAPL )
, according to media reports.
POTENTIAL $74 BILLION VALUATION
At $30 a share - the price Bank of America analyst Jessica
Reif Ehrlich estimates Warner Bros Discovery ( WBD ) could fetch in a
sale - the company would be valued at about $74 billion, a
figure analysts say could deter some bidders but remains within
reach for Ellison, whose father Larry Ellison is the world's
second-richest person with a net worth of about $330 billion.
Apple ( AAPL ) had $36.3 billion in cash at June-end and could easily
raise debt to fund a takeover but it has historically avoided
large deals - its biggest remains the $3 billion Beats purchase.
Netflix ( NFLX ) holds about $9.3 billion in cash and has never done
a deal exceeding $1 billion, while Comcast's ( CMCSA ) $9.7 billion cash
pile means any bid would likely rely heavily on debt or outside
partners.
"It seems that Paramount appears to be in pole position,"
said PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore.
IN PARTS OR WHOLE?
Unlike Paramount, the other companies are also likely to be
more interested in parts of Warner Bros Discovery ( WBD ) than the whole
company, which will saddle its buyer with around $35 billion in
debt and declining cable TV assets, analysts said.
"The studio would make sense for Netflix ( NFLX ) and Apple ( AAPL ). The TV
networks would make sense for the Comcast ( CMCSA ) spinoff, while the
studio would make sense for what is left of NBCU," eMarketer
analyst Ross Benes said.
Netflix ( NFLX ) co-CEO Ted Sarandos on Tuesday reiterated the
streamer is not interested in buying traditional TV networks but
he did not mention studios.
"We've been very clear in the past that we have no interest
in owning legacy media networks, so there is no change there,"
he said during an earnings call.
Apple ( AAPL ) has also shown little appetite for cable TV assets.
Still, Warner Bros' vast film and TV library, along with HBO's
acclaimed shows, would be a strong addition to Apple TV+.
Comcast ( CMCSA ), meanwhile, is narrowing its focus to theme parks,
streaming and core NBCUniversal film and TV assets by spinning
off most of its waning cable networks. Buying Warner Bros would
deepen that strategy, giving Universal's parks access to
lucrative franchises such as "DC Comics" and "Harry Potter".
TRUMP CARD
David Ellison also enjoys a unique advantage over rival
bidders - his father's close ties with U.S. President Donald
Trump. Larry Ellison has long been a Republican mega-donor and
one of the few high-profile tech executives who were openly
supportive of Trump before last November's election.
Analysts say that could help ease regulatory concerns
arising from Paramount's potential buyout of Warner Bros
Discovery ( WBD ) - a deal that would hand control of a big swathe of
U.S. cable networks as well as two crucial studios to Ellison.
"If anyone does buy the whole thing, or even split it into
two and buy the two bits, it's going to have to have the
blessing of the current U.S. administration," said Clea Bourne,
Head of Subject of Strategic Communications and Journalism at
the Goldsmiths, University of London.
"And that's where the Ellisons stand out very easily,
because their cart is very close to the administration."
(Reporting by Zaheer Kachwala, Harshita Mary Varghese and
Anhata Rooprai in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)