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Dealmakers see 'green shoots' in M&A activity in election year after 2023 doldrums
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Dealmakers see 'green shoots' in M&A activity in election year after 2023 doldrums
Mar 7, 2024 10:26 AM

NEW ORLEANS, March 7 (Reuters) - Mergers and

acquisitions activity is poised to rebound later this year after

a sluggish 2023 as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates

and cash-flush buyers gear up for bigger deals as dealmakers see

"green shoots" in the quarters ahead.

Some of the world's most high-profile investment bankers and

M&A lawyers speaking at the Tulane Corporate Law Institute

conference in New Orleans said confidence levels have returned

to boardrooms due to an improved interest rate outlook, slowing

inflation, strong corporate earnings, and a robust stock market.

"We're heading in the right direction and maybe we are

getting to see green shoots," said Scott Barshay, chair of the

corporate department at law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton &

Garrison LLP. "My gut is this time we are at the beginnings of

an uptick and that is going to go on for some time."

Global M&A volumes this year through the first week of March

surged 55% to $601.79 billion, compared to the same period a

year ago, according to Dealogic data. The number of transactions

worth over $10 billion jumped threefold to 10 signed deals.

In January, design software firm Synopsys ( SNPS ) reached a

$35 billion deal for smaller rival Ansys ( ANSS ). In February,

Capital One agreed to acquire credit card rival Discover

Financial in an all-stock deal worth $35.3 billion.

"I don't know why you're sitting here, you should go out and

get those deals," Bill Anderson, senior managing director and

head of global activism and raid defense at Evercore, told the

conference.

Private equity dealmaking, however, remained muted this

year, after a slump in leveraged buyout volumes due to a spike

in financing costs that made larger deals harder to finance.

Lawyers and bankers also said it is still taking deals

longer to complete amid regulatory scrutiny.

"The market standard now is not every company has to act

with a sprint," said Barshay, adding that the number of smaller

transactions is poised to jump this year as they face less

resistance from antitrust regulators compared to larger deals.

Investment bankers and lawyers expect a significant pickup

in sponsor-backed deals during the second half of the year as

debt financing is expected to become cheaper due to rate cuts.

Private equity-backed deal volumes are up 22.5% so far this

year.

This year's U.S. presidential election in November is also

prompting lawyers and bankers to plan ahead for deals that might

face more regulatory scrutiny, with some saying they could see a

brief pause in dealmaking around the time of the vote until

there is more certainty on future policy.

"The only thing we know right now about the election is that

we are likely to have the same candidates we had" for the 2020

election, said Audra Cohen, co-managing partner of the general

practice group at law firm Sullivan & Cromwell.

Bankers and lawyers also expect a revival in dealmaking

driven by shareholder activism, especially as a number of new

activist funds have been launched. Even traditionally long-only

investment funds are following the traditional activist

playbook, and deploying tactics like pushing companies to launch

strategic reviews or urging boardrooms to replace management.

"Private equity has a lot of dry powder, and there is a lot

of capital that is currently not deployed," said Evercore's

Anderson.

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