NEW ORLEANS, March 7 (Reuters) - Mergers and
acquisitions activity is poised to rebound later this year after
a sluggish 2023 as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates
and cash-flush buyers gear up for bigger deals as dealmakers see
"green shoots" in the quarters ahead.
Some of the world's most high-profile investment bankers and
M&A lawyers speaking at the Tulane Corporate Law Institute
conference in New Orleans said confidence levels have returned
to boardrooms due to an improved interest rate outlook, slowing
inflation, strong corporate earnings, and a robust stock market.
"We're heading in the right direction and maybe we are
getting to see green shoots," said Scott Barshay, chair of the
corporate department at law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton &
Garrison LLP. "My gut is this time we are at the beginnings of
an uptick and that is going to go on for some time."
Global M&A volumes this year through the first week of March
surged 55% to $601.79 billion, compared to the same period a
year ago, according to Dealogic data. The number of transactions
worth over $10 billion jumped threefold to 10 signed deals.
In January, design software firm Synopsys ( SNPS ) reached a
$35 billion deal for smaller rival Ansys ( ANSS ). In February,
Capital One agreed to acquire credit card rival Discover
Financial in an all-stock deal worth $35.3 billion.
"I don't know why you're sitting here, you should go out and
get those deals," Bill Anderson, senior managing director and
head of global activism and raid defense at Evercore, told the
conference.
Private equity dealmaking, however, remained muted this
year, after a slump in leveraged buyout volumes due to a spike
in financing costs that made larger deals harder to finance.
Lawyers and bankers also said it is still taking deals
longer to complete amid regulatory scrutiny.
"The market standard now is not every company has to act
with a sprint," said Barshay, adding that the number of smaller
transactions is poised to jump this year as they face less
resistance from antitrust regulators compared to larger deals.
Investment bankers and lawyers expect a significant pickup
in sponsor-backed deals during the second half of the year as
debt financing is expected to become cheaper due to rate cuts.
Private equity-backed deal volumes are up 22.5% so far this
year.
This year's U.S. presidential election in November is also
prompting lawyers and bankers to plan ahead for deals that might
face more regulatory scrutiny, with some saying they could see a
brief pause in dealmaking around the time of the vote until
there is more certainty on future policy.
"The only thing we know right now about the election is that
we are likely to have the same candidates we had" for the 2020
election, said Audra Cohen, co-managing partner of the general
practice group at law firm Sullivan & Cromwell.
Bankers and lawyers also expect a revival in dealmaking
driven by shareholder activism, especially as a number of new
activist funds have been launched. Even traditionally long-only
investment funds are following the traditional activist
playbook, and deploying tactics like pushing companies to launch
strategic reviews or urging boardrooms to replace management.
"Private equity has a lot of dry powder, and there is a lot
of capital that is currently not deployed," said Evercore's
Anderson.