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Nov.5 election is biggest test ever for Brown

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Democrat in Republican state who's 'swimming against the

stream'

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Ohio vote could be key to control of US Senate

By Richard Cowan

WARREN, Ohio, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. Senator

Sherrod Brown has navigated Ohio's increasingly Republican

political currents for the past two decades by appealing to the

state's blue collar voters, but the Nov. 5 election will test

him as never before.

Democrats' hopes of defending their narrow 51-49 majority in

the Senate depend heavily on Brown's success in a state that has

taken a strong turn toward Republican presidential candidate

Donald Trump -- whose running mate, U.S. Senator JD Vance, hails

from Ohio.

The state hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential

candidate since President Barack Obama carried it by two

percentage points in 2012, and hasn't elected a Democratic

governor since 2007. That trend helps explain why Brown, 71, has

not been joined on the campaign trail by Democratic presidential

candidate Kamala Harris or her running mate Tim Walz.

Opinion polls show Brown locked in a tight race with

Republican former luxury car dealer Bernie Moreno, 57, a closer

contest than the presidential race in the state, where Trump

leads by about 8 points, according to the FiveThirtyEight.com

polling average.

Success for Brown, who heads the Senate Banking Committee,

will hang on strong turnout in the Democratic strongholds of

Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, as well as a significant

number of "ticket-splitting" voters willing for vote for both

Brown and Trump. Senators serve for six-year terms, making this

the first election that both Brown and Trump's names have

appeared on the same ballot.

"Brown is swimming upstream, but he's the strongest swimmer

they (Democrats) have," said Paul Sracic, a Youngstown State

University political science professor. Now, many blue-collar

and service workers who grew up as Democrats in the region "are

becoming more comfortable with the (Republican) Party," Sracic

said.

While polls show the race for the White House and U.S. House

of Representatives as close-fought, Republicans are favored to

win a Senate majority. Democrats are trying to defend seats in

seven states seen as competitive, while the Republican defenders

are all in less-competitive states, with Democrats pinning their

hopes on Brown and Senator Jon Tester of deeply Republican

Montana.

UNION MEETINGS

Brown has longstanding ties to organized labor in the state

and a track record of both pushing back against corporate power

and embracing some bipartisan legislation that dates back to his

first election to the state legislature in 1974.

During a recent meeting with workers at the United Auto

Workers union Local 1112 in Warren, Ohio, Brown focused his

remarks squarely on his efforts to stop what he calls China's

illegal export of cheap vehicles through Mexico.

Asked by reporters whether such a ban could inadvertently

hamstring a centerpiece of Democratic President Joe Biden's

environmental agenda: lowering carbon emissions through

government incentives for consumers to buy electric vehicles. It

is a policy Trump mocks regularly while running against Harris,

who helped get Biden's push for EVs passed into law in 2022.

"I don't tell anyone what to drive. I drive an internal

combustion engine," Brown said, mindful of the economic pain the

area endured in 2019 when General Motors ( GM ) closed its assembly

plant in nearby Lordstown, at a cost of about 4,300 jobs.

He then explained that he simply wants to ensure that cars

and trucks on American roads are built in America by union

labor, however they are powered.

Trump's popularity with working-class voters has led some

unions to soften their historically strong support of Democrats,

most notably the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which

opted not to endorse a candidate in this year's presidential

election after a poll of its members found that a clear majority

supported Trump.

The Ohio Teamsters have endorsed Brown this year.

Those tensions were on display before Brown's meeting with

the United Auto Workers members. George Goranitis, the local's

newly-elected president eagerly backed Brown, but when asked in

an interview about Harris -- who the national UAW has endorsed

-- Goranitis paused.

Pressed on the issue, Goranitis would not utter an

endorsement, saying that he is the face of the local union where

sentiments are mixed over the presidential race.

"Ohio has now become a red state. Trumbull County has become

a red (county)," Goranitis said. "But you know you have your

Harris and Walz supporters and Sherrod Brown supporters and you

also have your Trump and JD Vance and Moreno supporters."

BIG MONEY

While big-name national Democrats have not been flying in to

campaign with Brown, they have been pumping money into his

campaign, as have Republicans for Moreno.

The contest is shaping up to be one of the most expensive

Senate races ever. As of Sept. 30, Brown has outraised Moreno

$81 million to $22 million, but Moreno allies have made up the

difference with outside spending, where they have pumped in

about $160 million to Brown backers' roughly $86 million,

according to Open Secrets.

The Moreno campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

On social media he highlights Trump priorities, such as

immigration.

"Springfield is overrun with migrants," Moreno posted on X,

citing the Ohio city that Trump and his supporters thrust into

the limelight this summer by spreading false claims that some

Haitian immigrants in the city were eating other people's pets.

While many Democrats loudly criticized Trump and Vance for

promoting these claims, Brown has largely sidestepped the issue.

Asked by Reuters about the controversy, Brown pivoted,

saying that Congress had a chance to pass a bipartisan

immigration and border security bill earlier this year that

Trump played a critical role in killing.

"There are people who want to gain politically on the border

issues," Brown said. "I just want to get it done. Should have

passed at beginning of the year."