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Deutsche Bank on Shopify BFCM Sales

Dec 4, 2024 10:36 AM

01:11 PM EST, 12/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Shopify's ( SHOP ) Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) sales of $11.5 billion (+24%) were ahead of Black Friday ($5 billion +22%) and signals that the company can achieve, and is likely to exceed consensus fourth-quarter GMV growth expectations of +23.5%, writes Deutsche Bank.

"We continue to see upside to BFCM growth for the quarter as success internationally should decrease BFCM as a percentage of 4Q." Assuming a modest tick down of BFCM as a percentage of fiscal fourth-quarter from 12.4% last year to 12.3% this year implies ~25% y/y GMV growth, Deutsche Bank notes.

Datapoints across the weekend also reinforce Shopify's ( SHOP ) ability to gain market share with Shopify GMV growth of +24%, ahead of Salesforce and Adobe data indicating ecommerce growth of mid-to-high-single-digits. Payments trends from both Shopify ( SHOP ) (Shop Pay +58%) and Salesforce (+42% growth in Wallet transaction during Cyber Week) bode well for Shop Pay adoption and thus GPV penetration and revenue growth.

Shopify ( SHOP ) is rated Buy, with a US$125 target.

Price: 159.79, Change: +2.32, Percent Change: +1.47

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