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Deutsche Bank Says "Another Material Downgrade Could Be Coming" For Teck After It Details QB Action Plan; TECK Down Near 5%
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Deutsche Bank Says "Another Material Downgrade Could Be Coming" For Teck After It Details QB Action Plan; TECK Down Near 5%
Sep 4, 2025 9:50 AM

12:24 PM EDT, 09/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Deutsche Bank in a note date September 3, 2205, noted Teck Resources announced a QB action plan aimed at improving performance and resolving the existing challenges at the tailings facilities. The release also confirmed that sanctioning of major growth projects (Zafranal and San Nicolas) will be deferred until QB achieves steady state operations and ramp-up

targets. Senior management changes have also been announced: Shehzad Bharmal, COO, has retired from Teck (the previous COO, Red Conger, left the group only two years ago in 2023 due to setbacks at QB); the heads of the Latin America and North America units will now report directly to the CEO, Jonathan Price; and Danny Malchuk (former head of the copper division at BHP) has been brought in to provide direct support to the CEO and QB operations team (but not as a replacement COO).

The review, Deutsche Bank noted, is expected to conclude by October 2025, with revised guidance to be

provided no later than Teck's Q3 results (Oct 22) and ahead of the site trip to QB in early November.

Deutsche Bank said in following a detailed project review and reset of guidance last year, this update suggests that TECK "may still not have the right people in place to deliver the project", that the "tailings work at QB is more extensive" than previously communicated with the Q2 results in July and "2026 guidance could be lowered materially". Deutsche added: "TECK has been a major laggard this year due to ongoing ramp-up issues at QB. There is value at current levels, but delivery and improvements at QB will be key for sentiment."

How severe, Deutsche Bank asked itself, could the QB downgrades be? The bank thinks the risk is more to 2026 guidance than 2025 (210-230 kt), which already reflected some of the impact from the tailings work. It noted 2026 guidance of 280-310 kt assumes design capacity for the entire year. If the tailings work limits production through the first half of 2026, this guidance could possibly be reduced to a range of 240-270 kt (consensus is currently 260-295, with a mid-point of 279 kt). Deutsche Bank has revised its QB 2025-26 production estimates down to near 210/250 kt and now assumes the mine achieves design capacity from mid-2026.

The bank lowered its TP to US$42 from US$45 as a result.

TECK A and B class shares are down about 5% in Canada.

Price: 44.08, Change: -2.51, Percent Change: -5.39

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