Disney+Hotstar’s current subscriber base is estimated at about 57.5 million, which is 3.8 million less than 61.3 million on October 1, 2022. The OTT (over-the-top) platform which enjoys the biggest subscriber share in the Indian market will find this worrying as it has now lost out on its premium English content as its partnership with HBO comes to an end on March 31, 2023.

Share Market Live

NSE

Subscribers will now have to figure out where they will watch content like Game of Thrones, The Wire, The Sopranos, Band of Brothers, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Succession, Barry, Westworld and much more.

Also Read | No April Fool prank: Succession, Game of Thrones and these shows are going off Hotstar come March-end

Sector analysts say that this could lead to a loss in paid subscriber base and market share for Disney+Hotstar.

Karan Taurani, Media and Entertainment sector analyst at Elara Capital says "The current market share for Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) of Disney+Hotstar is about 20 percent, which has a likelihood to decline to 15 percent.”

The market share loss in Advertising Video on Demand (AVOD) could be higher. "Hotstar is currently at about 22 percent and could halve to 11 percent, as IPL drives a large chunk of its AVOD revenue”.

Who Is Set To Gain?

Well, one man’s loss is another man’s gain. Market share loss in Hotstar’s subscriber base could mean a gain for other OTT apps, particularly Jio Cinema which shall offer free streaming of IPL 2023 in high resolution.

Other OTT apps which could be potential beneficiaries are Zee5, Sony Liv, Amazon Prime Video and Netflix, among others. With this, expectations of Jio Cinema’s Average Monthly User (MAU) base are to magnify. Sector watchers warn that poor user experience on the Jio Cinema could be the only big risk for user acquisition, retention and content monetisation.

With premium content like IPL being offered free, subscription revenue growth for OTT platforms in India is slated to converge over the near term. This implies that subscriber growth is the only driver for overall subscription revenue growth, which in turn may decelerate if key content deals are lost in terms of renewals or content costs are curbed due to macro uncertainties.

Road Ahead For Disney+Hotstar

Though, for Hotstar, there still persists some respite with the availability of TV content which drives a large chunk of broadcaster OTT content such as Star, the upcoming T20 Cricket World Cup and Disney’s plethora of global and Indian movie catalogues.

Nearly four years ago, Netflix witnessed pressure due to its loss of Disney content in 2019 and to ensure subscriber base retention, heavy investments were made in creating original content. Disney+Hotstar as well shall require aggressive investments in fresh content to minimise the expected losses in subscriber base, due to the loss of HBO content. However, investments into original content and new IP is time-consuming, where transition time could be upwards of 15 months, say sector watchers.

(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)