financetom
Business
financetom
/
Business
/
Dollar weakness helps pound and euro, elections in focus
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Dollar weakness helps pound and euro, elections in focus
Jul 4, 2024 2:14 AM

LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) -The pound and the euro on Thursday held on to gains against the dollar from the previous day, having taken respite from weak U.S. economic data that sent the greenback lower, as voting got underway in Britain, and France's weekend election neared.

Sterling was last at $1.2760, up 0.13%, after gaining 0.46% on Wednesday and touching a three-week high, while the euro was at $1.080, up 0.1% after a gain of 0.4%, also at a three-week top.

The pound is now up on the year against the dollar, making it the best performing G10 currency in 2024.

The dollar was sent lower by softer-than-expected U.S. economic data on Wednesday, including a weak services report and ADP employment report, depicting a slowing economy, after a rise in initial applications for unemployment benefits last week.

"The data is feeding expectations that maybe the labour market is weakening and the Fed will be able to cut rates later in the year," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

Markets now see nearly 50 basis points of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024, most likely starting with a 25-basis-point move in September and a second by year-end, bets which also brought down U.S. Treasury yields. [US/]

The most important monthly U.S. labour market data, non-farm payrolls, due on Friday, is expected to show an increase of 190,000 jobs in June after a rise of 272,000 in May, a Reuters poll of economists showed. 

U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the July 4 holiday.

British voters go to the polls on Thursday and look set to elect Labour Party leader Keir Starmer as the next prime minister, sweeping Rishi Sunak's Conservatives out of office after 14 often turbulent years.

Foley attributed two main reasons for the limited market reaction to the calling of elections and campaigning drama.

"Firstly, Labour has been consistently above (the Conservatives) in opinion polls for some time, so there has been no shock," she said.

"The second reason is Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have done quite a good job at convincing investors and the electorate that they have moved the party into the centre ground."

Reeves is the Labour Party's finance policy chief.

Analysts also pointed to more uncertainty about the French elections, with a run-off set for Sunday.

Market nerves have eased somewhat and the closely watched gap between German and French 10-year yields has narrowed to less than 70 basis points having been above 80 bps ahead of the first round of voting last week. [GVD/EUR]

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said this was due to numerous centre and left-wing candidates dropping out of three-way runoffs to curb prospects for Marine Le Pen's right-wing Naitonal Rally party.

"This raises the chances of a hung parliament, which appears a more desirable outcome for markets as it limits the chances of aggressive spending manoeuvres," he said.

However, he added, "Our rates team continues to call for structurally wider French spreads and we expect that to weigh on the euro throughout the summer."

YEN WATCH

The beleaguered Japanese yen, which failed to gain much traction on Wednesday, strengthened on Thursday, with the dollar down 0.2% at 161.21 yen.

It was, however, still not far from a trough of 161.96 per dollar hit in the previous session, its lowest since December 1986, with fundamentals stacked against the currency. 

Traders were preparing for possible Japanese government currency intervention with U.S. markets off for the July Fourth holiday.

Tokyo's previous two rounds of yen buying came at illiquid points in the global trading day or holiday-thinned trading. 

However, the hurdle for intervention may be higher at this stage, said Marito Ueda, general manager of the market research department at SBI Liquidity Market.

"The Ministry of Finance is saying the trigger for intervention is not the level, but if there are excessive moves. It's hard to step in, since current moves don't fall into that category."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Hashicorp Insider Sold Shares Worth $364,436, According to a Recent SEC Filing
Hashicorp Insider Sold Shares Worth $364,436, According to a Recent SEC Filing
Mar 13, 2024
04:16 PM EDT, 03/13/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Marc Holmes, Chief Marketing Officer, on March 11, 2024, sold 13,916 shares in Hashicorp ( HCP ) for $364,436. SEC Filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720671/000141588924007796/xslF345X03/form4-03132024_080344.xml Price: 26.3, Change: -0.06, Percent Change: -0.23 ...
Tesla Faces Near-Term Headwinds but Negative Sentiment 'Way Overdone', Wedbush Says
Tesla Faces Near-Term Headwinds but Negative Sentiment 'Way Overdone', Wedbush Says
Mar 13, 2024
04:19 PM EDT, 03/13/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Tesla (TSLA) is facing near-term headwinds, but the negative sentiment is way overdone, Wedbush said in a note Wednesday. Wedbush said there is a fierce price competition in China's auto market. However, these aggressive price reductions are expected to taper off into spring/summer 2024. This is a positive news for Tesla and the...
Vericel Insider Sold Shares Worth $352,047, According to a Recent SEC Filing
Vericel Insider Sold Shares Worth $352,047, According to a Recent SEC Filing
Mar 13, 2024
04:15 PM EDT, 03/13/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Michael Halpin, Chief Operating Officer, on March 11, 2024, sold 7,874 shares in Vericel ( VCEL ) for $352,047. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Halpin has control over a total of 949 shares of the company, with 949 shares held directly. SEC Filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887359/000114036124013006/xslF345X03/form4.xml ...
Liberty Energy May Face Pressure From Rival ProFrac's Market-Share Play, Bloomberg Intelligence Says
Liberty Energy May Face Pressure From Rival ProFrac's Market-Share Play, Bloomberg Intelligence Says
Mar 13, 2024
04:18 PM EDT, 03/13/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Liberty Energy (LBRT) may face some risk from rival ProFrac Holding's ( ACDC ) market-share play, a potential precursor of a more competitive price environment in the pressure-pumping market, Bloomberg Intelligence said in a report Wednesday. However, Liberty's solid industry position following its 2020 purchase of Schlumberger's (SLB) OneStim pressure-pumping operations, could help...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved