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Elastic Likely to Overcome Potential Downside Risks, Extending Momentum After Better-Than-Expected Q4 Results, Oppenheimer Says
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Elastic Likely to Overcome Potential Downside Risks, Extending Momentum After Better-Than-Expected Q4 Results, Oppenheimer Says
May 30, 2025 8:34 AM

11:01 AM EDT, 05/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Elastic (ESTC) exceeded Wall Street forecasts with its fiscal Q4 results but the better-than-expected performance by the artificial intelligence-powered search company may not be enough to fully dispel investor concerns, analysts at Oppenheimer said on Friday in a research note.

While recent efforts to pare the size of the federal government weighed somewhat on its Q4 results, Elastic still was able to handily beat consensus estimates during the three months ended April 30, the Oppenheimer analysts said. It also began Q1 with a strong pipeline and "good near-term visibility," they said.

Still, the Q4 results also contained some negatives, the analysts said. Growth for Elastic's cloud business trailed Wall Street expectations by around 40 basis points and management's fiscal 2026 guidance projecting a 12% increase in revenue also lagged analyst estimates, reflecting a cautious approach amid uncertain macro-economic and consumption trends, the Oppenheimer analysts said.

"We believe the FY guidance approach sets up beatable targets, though it could still weigh on the shares near term until proof points emerge," the analyst wrote, explaining they remain comfortable with its longer-term prospects. They were particularly optimistic about favorable secular trends supporting enterprise digitization and an increased emphasis on data collection and analysis among its customers.

The Oppenheimer analysts also reiterated their outperform stock rating and a $120 price target for Elastic shares. The price target equals about 6.7 times their forecast for calendar 2026 sales, landing roughly midway between their multiples for the companies' peer companies of four to 10 times projected yearly sales and confidence it can "meet or beat current guidance."

Price: 81.68, Change: -10.35, Percent Change: -11.25

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