10:27 AM EDT, 03/24/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Etsy ( ETSY ) is more exposed to risks from rising oil and gas prices than other online marketplaces, Oppenheimer said in a client note e-mailed Tuesday.

The brokerage lowered its estimates for the e-commerce platform's gross merchandise sales and core profit amid uncertainty surrounding consumer spending due to the Middle East conflict.

Brent crude has advanced 37% since the Iran war broke out amid fears of a prolonged supply disruption.

Past geopolitical events, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, negatively impacted Etsy's ( ETSY ) GMS, according to Oppenheimer analysts, including Jason Helfstein. GMS measures the total dollar amount of items sold on Etsy's ( ETSY ) platform, excluding shipping fees and net of refunds.

"While we aren't expecting a prolonged impact, Etsy ( ETSY ) is potentially more exposed than other online marketplaces as (stock keeping unit) types are highly discretionary and active buyers have plateaued," Helfstein wrote.

Etsy's ( ETSY ) shares were down 6.6% intraday Tuesday, taking its year-to-date loss to 12%.

The brokerage now projects core GMS of $2.38 billion for the first quarter and $2.43 billion in the second quarter for Etsy ( ETSY ), down from $2.40 billion and $2.45 billion, respectively, previously expected. Oppenheimer lowered estimates for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by 4% and 3% for the first and the second quarter, respectively.

For 2026, the brokerage now estimates core GMS of $10.63 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $788 million, down from its prior projections of $10.68 billion and $801 million, respectively.

The projected core GMS and adjusted EBITDA outlooks for 2027 were lowered by 1% each.

"In general, we do not see Etsy ( ETSY ) leaning into promotions or discounting during periods of weakness," Helfstein said. "With new buyers fully penetrated, we expect the company will continue to focus on driving frequency through better consumer experiences and (artificial intelligence-) driven personalization with early tests delivering positive results."

Oppenheimer has a perform rating on the stock.

Price: 49.77, Change: -2.72, Percent Change: -5.18