03:46 PM EDT, 10/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Etsy's ( ETSY ) Q3 core gross merchandise sales growth, or GMS, is likely to fall short of Wall Street estimates, which should not be a surprise as the e-commerce company did not reiterate its guidance for accelerating GMS through H2 during its Q2 earnings call, UBS said in a note emailed Tuesday.

UBS estimates Etsy's ( ETSY ) core GMS to fall 3.4% year over year in Q3, compared with Visible Alpha's consensus for a 1.8% decline. The investment firm also estimates consolidated GMS to drop 2.4%, versus consensus for a 2.2% decline.

"We see limited evidence that Q3 was an inflection point back to GMS growth," UBS said.

For Q4, UBS expects the company's consolidated GMS to see a 1.7% drop, versus the Street's estimate for a 1.3% drop.

Meanwhile, [full-year 2025] Street estimates look too high

and shares lack [valuation] support without a clearer trend back to GMS growth," UBS said.

UBS maintained a neutral rating on Etsy ( ETSY ) but lowered its price target to $58 from $65.

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