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EU vote on US trade deal is set to bring tariff peace, but for how long?
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EU vote on US trade deal is set to bring tariff peace, but for how long?
Jun 15, 2026 6:07 AM

* EU Parliament expected to vote on Tuesday to approve EU

duty cuts

* US will replace its tariffs with new system from July 24

* US demands EU concessions on non-tariff barriers

* EU wants an end of higher tariffs on metal-content

products

By Philip Blenkinsop

BRUSSELS, June 15 (Reuters) - The European Union is poised

to implement the import duty cuts it agreed with U.S. President

Donald Trump last year, averting at least for now another

eruption of tariff conflict between the world's largest trading

partners.

The European Parliament will vote on Tuesday on legislation to

fulfil the EU's side of the trade deal struck nearly 11 months

ago at Trump's Turnberry golf course in Scotland.

A clear majority is expected to back the agreement that

includes the removal of EU duties on U.S. imports and broad U.S.

tariffs of 15%.

Trump threatened "much higher" tariffs unless the EU acted soon.

EUROPEAN INDUSTRY SAYS A DEAL IS NEEDED

Industry has urged the lawmakers to back the deal and European

automakers, particularly hard hit by tariffs, are already making

preparations on its basis. The Turnberry deal removes a 10% EU

import duties on U.S. cars.

Volvo Cars, which produces the majority of its

U.S.-bound vehicles in Europe, will start making some of its

best-selling XC60 SUVs at its South Carolina factory later this

year and start producing at a new hybrid there by the end of the

decade.

Fifteen business associations representing EU carmakers, as well

as textiles, cosmetics and food and drink producers, said

backing the deal would ensure stability for businesses that rely

on annual transatlantic trade of $2 trillion .

But in a statement they said it was "not the end of the

conversation".

The crucial next step will be whether Washington's new

tariffs due to come into force from July 24 will exactly reflect

the Turnberry accord.

The two sides also need to agree to refrain from reimposing

mutual tariffs on $11.5 billion of goods related to a

decades-long dispute over aircraft subsidies. A five-year

suspension of those tariffs is due to expire on July 11.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United

States will stick to the deal, but Bernd Lange, chair of the EU

assembly's trade committee, expressed doubts.

"The decision is in the White House by the president and

therefore nobody knows what will really happen," he said.

Trump's warning of 100% tariffs on French wine on Monday could

certainly unravel the Turnberry deal.

Lange says the European Union should, if necessary, be ready to

suspend parts of the deal. It could also activate its Trump

tariff countermeasures on €93 billion ($108 billion) of U.S.

goods, which are suspended until August 6.

NOT JUST TARIFFS, DIFFERING PRIORITIES

Beyond tariffs, Washington and Brussels must work on other

elements of the Turnberry deal and each side has very different

priorities.

The United States insists the EU address non-tariff barriers and

regulatory matters, including U.S. concerns over the EU's carbon

border tax and its requirements on companies to prove commodity

imports are not from deforested land or audit their supply

chains for human rights or environmental harm.

The EU has scaled back some of its regulation and extended

deadlines to comply. But Exxon Mobil Corp ( XOM ) wants the EU's

corporate sustainability law scrapped and has taken its

grievances to Trump.

The European Union's complaints include U.S. tariffs above

15% applied to products containing metal such as washing

machines, wind turbines and motorcycles.

Trump even widened the range of products, known as metal

derivatives, a month after the Turnberry deal.

Some have since been removed from the list, but EU

legislation calls for the European Commission to suspend tariff

reductions on U.S. steel or aluminium goods unless all the

tariffs fall back to 15% by the end of the year.

EU cutlery and catering equipment makers say the higher

tariffs risk pricing them out of the U.S. market or compressing

already thin margins.

STEEL DEAL, SPIRITS EXEMPTION HOPES

The European Union also wants the United States to replace

50% tariffs on steel and aluminium with tariff-free quotas and

to increase the range of tariff-free products.

EU wine and spirits makers are keen to be first in line.

They have allies among U.S. spirits producers, which favour

no tariffs for both sides, pointing to a 450% growth of

bilateral trade from 1997 to 2018 when a zero-for-zero tariff

regime was in place.

That regime ended with tariff conflict in Trump's first term and

Chris Swonger, president of the Distilled Spirits Council of the

United States, said the risk of another hung over the industry.

Ongoing uncertainty over "Section 232" investigations that

Trump can use to apply tariffs if products are judged to

threaten U.S. national security is also a risk and could mean

the Turnberry deal terms are broken.

One threat that has receded is of Trump suddenly introducing new

tariffs, such as those he said he would impose on European

allies over Greenland in January.

After the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's

global tariffs, his administration now needs to carry out a

formal investigation before imposing levies.

"There might be other tools the United States finds to make

threats for political reasons, but I don't think tariffs are

going to be that instrument, because it is no longer available,"

said Ignacio Garcia Bercero, senior fellow at think tank

Bruegel.

($1 = 0.8614 euros)

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